These are my picks to win every Week 4 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier. You can bet on any of these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 4 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Bills over Saints
The Bills have been the best team in the NFL so far this season. They rank first in the league in offensive EPA/play, and since their dramatic comeback win over the Ravens in Week 1, it has been smooth sailing. They dominated the Jets in Week 2 and handled the Dolphins in Week 3. Now, they get a home game on extra rest against arguably the worst team in the NFL. Buffalo should dominate this game.
Lions over Browns
The Lions had a massive win over the Ravens in Week 3. After getting rolled by the Packers in Week 1, some predicted this could be a tough season for the Lions. However, they have bounced back brilliantly, scoring 52 points against the Bears in Week 2, then 38 against the Ravens. The Browns are coming off a big upset win over the Packers, but it will be tough to replicate an upset like that. Detroit’s offense should be too much for Cleveland.
Chargers over Giants
The Chargers have had a fantastic start to their season. They are one of six 3-0 teams heading into Week 4, sitting firmly atop the AFC West. After slow starts from the Chiefs and Broncos, this could be their chance to win the division for the first time since 2009. Los Angeles will be facing Jaxson Dart in his first career NFL start. While Dart could be the better option over Russell Wilson long-term, this will be a tough first game for him against an elite defense. The Chargers should contain the rookie and get the win.
Texans over Titans
These two 0-3 AFC South teams both desperately need a win. After winning the division in each of the two seasons with C.J. Stroud, the Texans are in a massive hole through three weeks. They need a win, and this game against Cam Ward and the Titans should be the right time. Despite not winning a game, the Texans are fifth in the NFL in scoring defense this season. The Titans rank 31st in offensive EPA/play and should be totally shut down by Houston on the road.
Broncos over Bengals
The Broncos are 1-2 after close losses to the Colts and Chargers the past two weeks. They need to get things back on track, and this is a great opportunity. The Bengals’ offense looked horrific in their first game with Jake Browning at the helm, getting steamrolled by the Vikings. The Broncos have a top-seven defense in EPA/play and success rate, which should make life difficult for Browning. Denver should get the win at home in primetime in front of a great crowd.
Medium Confidence
Packers over Cowboys
The Packers are looking to bounce back after their awful loss to the Browns. They were being hyped up as one of the best teams in the NFL after steamrolling the Lions and Commanders in their first two games. However, they showed they still have a way to go, especially on offense, if they want to win a Super Bowl. Against this terrible Cowboys’ defense, Jordan Love should bounce back strong. Dallas ranks 31st in the NFL in defensive EPA/play, while the Packers rank third. That big a difference in defensive quality should be enough for the Packers to win.
Patriots over Panthers
The Patriots have been up and down through three weeks. They started the season with a bad home loss against the Raiders, beat the Dolphins, and then lost another game with a close spread against the Steelers. They have another winnable game on their schedule here against the Panthers. The Panthers looked poor through two games, but dominated the Falcons in Week 3. While that was a great win for them, there should be some regression on the road in New England.
Eagles over Buccaneers
The Eagles just keep finding ways to win. All three of their games have been close so far this season, none closer than last week against the Rams, where they won on a blocked field goal. However, the mark of a championship team is winning close games, even if you didn’t play your best. The Buccaneers have also managed to win three tight games this season. While both teams have been fortunate to get to 3-0, the Eagles have the better team and should get this win.
Rams over Colts
The Rams were unfortunate to get their game-winning field goal blocked against the Eagles in Week 3. However, they have looked strong through three weeks. The Rams are the only team in the NFL that ranks within the top ten in both offensive EPA/play and defensive EPA/play. The Colts have been fantastic through three weeks, but they rank 21st in defensive success rate. The Rams should be able to control the football in this game and get the win at home.
Ravens over Chiefs
The Ravens and Chiefs both sit at 1-2 through three weeks. Both teams have Super Bowl aspirations, so starting 1-3 would be disastrous. Despite their slow starts, the Ravens have looked the better team through three weeks. It took a catastrophic collapse to lose in Week 1 against the Bills, and the Lions played a nearly flawless game to beat them in Week 3. The Ravens rank fourth in the NFL in offensive EPA/play, and should be able to outscore the Chiefs in this pivotal game.
Coin-Flip Games
Vikings over Steelers
The Vikings looked fantastic in their first game with Carson Wentz at quarterback, following the injury to J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings have the best defense in the NFL this season, measured by EPA/play. Brian Flores is a master defensive coach, and Kevin O’Connell is an elite offensive coach. O’Connell is going to make things easy for Carson Wentz to succeed. Their elite defense, along with a strong running game and the X-factor of Justin Jefferson, should be enough to win this one.
49ers over Jaguars
There is optimism that Brock Purdy will be back at quarterback for the 49ers this week. While it wasn’t pretty at times, Mac Jones went 2-0, winning close games against the Saints and Cardinals. The 49ers wanted a bounce-back season after they were decimated by injuries in 2024. Their 3-0 start is exactly what they wanted, but this will be a tough game against the Jaguars. However, if Purdy is healthy, San Francisco should have too much offensive firepower and get the win.
Seahawks over Cardinals
The Seahawks struggled on offense in their first game with Sam Darnold at quarterback. However, they have dominated the last two weeks, scoring 75 combined points against the Saints and Steelers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranks second in the NFL in receiving yards, and Sam Darnold ranks fifth in EPA+CPOE composite. Moving on from Geno Smith and DK Metcalf in favor of Darnold and Smith-Njigba seems like the right move so far. They should have too much offense for Arizona on Thursday night.
Falcons over Commanders
The Falcons got inexplicably dominated by the Panthers after playing well in their first two games. Everything went wrong for Atlanta, and they need a bounce-back performance. The Commanders could be without Terry McLaurin for this game, as well as Jayden Daniels for the second straight week. Getting Washington at such a vulnerable time is something Atlanta needs to take advantage of. The Falcons rank fifth in the NFL in defensive EPA/play and should be a tough test for Marcus Mariota if he needs to start another week.
Jets over Dolphins
The Jets and Dolphins have both started the season 0-3 and are in big trouble. However, the Jets are a team with a new coaching staff, a new quarterback and new pieces looking to gel. The Dolphins are on their last legs of the Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel era. One team has hope to build towards something positive, while the other has been on a steep decline over the past several seasons. The Jets have been competitive, leading late in the fourth quarter against both the Buccaneers and Steelers before losing on game-winning field goals in the final two minutes. The Dolphins have the worst defense in the NFL this season, and the vibes are awful in Miami. This is a true coin-flip game, but I will back the Jets to scrape out a win.
Bears over Raiders
The Bears looked great last week against the Cowboys. After starting the Ben Johnson era 0-2, that performance looked like what many Chicago fans had hoped for when they hired Johnson. There was creativity and fluidity on offense, and Caleb Williams looked like a No. 1 overall pick quarterback. They were tough enough on defense to slow down the Cowboys and won convincingly. This could be a let-down spot against a Raiders team desperate for a win, but if the Bears can ride that momentum, they should get a win in this game.
