Every game is a must-win for the New York Mets at this point in the season. FanGraphs gives New York a 68.2% shot at making the playoffs, with the team currently hanging onto a narrow 1.0 game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds for the final National League wild card spot with just four games left.
However, the Mets don’t own the tiebreaker against either team. Cincinnati took the season series and Arizona – despite splitting their six games against New York – owns a better intra-division record and would claim the spot in the case of a tie. The Reds hold onto the three-way tiebreaker.
On Thursday night, the Mets (81-77) look to secure a pivotal series victory over the Chicago Cubs (89-69), who have already clinched postseason berth, at Wrigley Field at 7:40 pm ET.
New York owns a 3-2 record against Chicago this season. The Amazin’s rallied for a 9-7 win in the opening matchup on Tuesday, but the Cubs tagged rookie Jonah Tong for five runs in two innings on their way to a 10-3 annihilation on Wednesday.
The odds are virtually even on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mets at -108 and the Cubs at -112 on the moneyline. The run total is set at 7.5 runs.
Mets at Cubs prediction, preview
In one of the most crucial games of the season, New York hands the ball off to trusted rookie Nolan McLean. Called up in August, the 24-year-old right-hander has quickly established himself as a linchpin arm in the Mets’ rotation for years to come.
McLean has dazzled with a 1.27 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 46 strikeouts across 42.2 innings in his first seven starts. He has reached five innings in each start and has yet to allow more than two earned runs – giving up zero on three separate occasions. McLean wields a wicked sinker/sweeper combo, boasting a high strikeout rate (27.9%) and whiff rate (28.0%), and keeping the ball on the ground at an exceptional clip (63.1%).
McLean most recently went five innings against the Washington Nationals on Saturday, giving up three runs (one earned) on four hits and two walks with six strikeouts. He has yet to face the Cubs this season.
For the home team, 32-year-old southpaw Shota Imanaga toes the slab for his final start of the year. In his second MLB season, the Japanese phenom has rebounded from a strained hamstring to post a respectable 3.37 ERA and an incredible 0.96 WHIP with 114 strikeouts over 130 innings across 24 starts.
He boasts an exceptional offspeed arsenal headlined by a splitter that he unleashes over 30% of the time. According to Statcast, his offspeed run value (7) ranks in the 94th percentile of the majors.
Imanaga induces a staggering 31.8% chase rate while walking batters just 4.6% of the time – the latter mark placing in the top 96th percentile of the league.
There’s no denying Imanaga’s offspeed stuff is disgusting, but the same can’t be said for his fastball. At an average velocity of just 90.8 mph, opposing teams are slugging .550 against his four-seamer this season.
Imanaga has been knocked around quite a bit in September. After holding a 2.65 ERA in August, he’s followed up with a bloated 4.91 ERA in the last month of the season. Last time out, the southpaw gave up four runs (three earned) in five innings on four hits and three home runs against the Reds last Friday. He has yet to face the Mets this season.
While Imanaga’s last few starts haven’t been pretty, he faces a team that has struggled against left-handed pitching this season. New York, headlined by lefty sluggers, owns just a .694 OPS against southpaws and ranks in the bottom half of the league.
Juan Soto’s splits against lefties aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, though not nearly as grand as his lofty numbers against righties. Pete Alonso has just a .736 OPS against southpaws this season. Francisco Lindor, while a switch-hitter, has posted a measly .667 OPS against left-handers in 2025.
Mets at Cubs pick, best bet
Despite their struggles against left-handed pitching, each member of the Mets’ three-headed monster is known for delivering in clutch moments – and all of them have caught fire in the last month of the season. Alonso, Lindor, and Soto all own an OPS over .830 in September. Soto has been especially dominant during that stretch. The $765 million man is hitting .341 with a 1.134 OPS, 207 wRC+, and eight homers this month – going deep again on Wednesday night.
Meanwhile, Chicago’s offense has fallen off a cliff after a scorching start to the year. The Cubs, who once led the National League in OPS, barely make the cut for MLB’s top ten now at .746. Michael Busch and Ian Happ have put together solid seasons, but former NL MVP contender Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit a brutal .206 with just four homers since the All-Star break.
