Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s action on the diamond: Ben Rice, Francisco Alvarez and Vinnie Pasquantino.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Ben Rice 1+ Home Run (+330)
It’s unclear what position he’s going to play going forward, but here’s one thing that is obvious about Ben Rice: His bat is legit. The 26-year-old comes into tonight’s contest with the White Sox in possession of a 98th percentile hard hit rate (56.5%), a 98th percentile expected wOBA (.407) and a 97th percentile expected slugging rate (.574). It’s not like these figures are front-loaded, either. Rice actually possesses a 144 wRC+ since the All-Star break. He’s been mashing throughout 2025. On Thursday, Rice and the Yankees will be opposed by Davis Martin, who is surrendered 1.58 home runs per nine to LHBs. There’s certainly no shortage of powerful left-handed bats to choose from in the Yankees’ lineup, yet I think Rice has the most alluring odds of the bunch.
Francisco Alvarez 1+ Home Run (+535)
If there was a knock on Shota Imanaga when he was coming over from Japan, it was his propensity to give up long fly balls. It was something that the 32-year-old overcame in 2024 en route to an impressive 2.91 ERA in his rookie campaign in MLB, yet it’s become far more of a red flag in recent months. In fact, dating back to July 25, Imanaga has conceded 18 opponent home runs in just 64.0 innings. That’s 2.53 per nine. That’s multiple long balls in six of his 11 starts in that span, including three in his most recent outing against the Reds. Yikes. Now, I know what you’re thinking. Imanaga is a left-handed pitcher facing the Mets. Shouldn’t I just bet on Pete Alonso (+224) to go deep? That’s a perfectly reasonable strategy, but I’m enticed by the longer odds of Francisco Alvarez, who just so happens to have a team-high .526 expected slugging percentage against LHPs in 2025. Alvarez has beed red-hot lately, too, with a home run in back-to-back games.
Vinnie Pasquantino 1+ Home Run (+455)
If you ignore a horrendous start to his season in March and April, Pasquantino has simply been one of the most dangerous left-handed bats in baseball the past five months. In his 539 plate appearances since May 1, Pasquantino is slashing .288/.345/.510 with a .222 ISO and a 132 wRC+. Obviously, he’s tended to be at his absolute best when facing a right-handed pitcher, yet Angels starter Mitch Farris isn’t exactly an overpowering southpaw. Farris has also been destroyed in left-on-left matchups in his first four MLB outings, surrendering a .619 slugging percentage within the split. There’s the matter of Los Angeles’ bullpen, too. Angels relievers have given up 1.40 home runs per nine as a group in 2025 — the highest mark of any American League team. If Pasquantino doesn’t get Farris, he should at least get a couple at-bats versus this underwhelming pen.
