In last Sunday’s 21-14 loss to the Steelers, the Patriots turned the ball over five times. Starting RB Rhamondre Stevenson coughed up two fumbles, including one at the goal line and third-string RB Antonio Gibson also lost a fumble.
All this comes after Stevenson had seven fumbles last season, which led all running backs. The veteran has been New England’s top back this season, averaging 7.3 carries per game — which is 40.7% of the running back carries for the Patriots — while logging 54.6% of the snaps. But all these numbers are now likely to decrease for Stevenson after the reemergence of his fumble issues. Stevenson lost his second fumble in the start of the third quarter against Pittsburgh, and as a result, his playing time in the second half was cut short, with him only logging seven total snaps in the half.
Subsequently, TreVeyon Henderson led New England’s backfield with 26 snaps in the second half. The rookie only finished with 7.7 FPTS in this loss, but Henderson’s big increase in playing time after Stevenson’s fumbles is likely a sign of things to come. In his 688 touches between college and the NFL, Henderson impressively has never lost a fumble. Selected in the second-round by the Patriots in this past NFL draft, Henderson is the highest running back New England has drafted in seven years. Last year with the National Champion Ohio State Buckeyes, the 22-year-old produced 1,300 yards and 11 touchdowns.
The organization clearly has very high hopes for Henderson, and while this New England coaching staff likely preferred to slowly work the rookie in this season, the Patriots have no choice but to now turn to Henderson and heavily utilize him. At practice this week, Henderson has been operating as New England’s No. 1 back in some drills.
Henderson is only averaging 6.3 carries per game and logging 38.1% of the snaps this season, but going forward, he should approach 15 carries on a weekly basis and handle over half of the snaps. Henderson’s 10.7% target share and 37% route rate should both also increase.
Henderson is only averaging 8.0 FPTS per game through the first three weeks of the season, but he ranks first among the Patriots’ backfield with 0.32 FPTS per snap. With a much larger workload likely coming his way, Henderson will have great upside every week and he still has a great chance to live up to his offseason hype. Henderson was a consensus top 50 pick in fantasy football drafts this summer and this is a perfect time to trade for him in your league, as the manger that drafted him likely is very discouraged with his production through three games. That frustration could have that manger blinded of Henderson’s positive outlook going forward.
