At 84-74, the Astros need every win they can get over the next four days. That could prove difficult this afternoon in Sacramento. The Athletics are no pushovers, wielding one of the American League’s most dangerous lineups. Can Houston earn a much-needed win on the road? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s game between the Astros and the Athletics.
Houston is favored (-115) over the A’s, with the over/under set at 9.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Astros vs. Athletics prediction, preview
This could be the final start in Houston for Framber Valdez. The two-time All-Star has enjoyed another solid campaign in Space City. Through 185.0 innings of work, the Dominican owns a 3.75 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 177 strikeouts. Still, the southpaw has hit a speed bump in recent weeks. Since August 1st, Valdez has posted a dismal 6.71 ERA. In six of nine appearances during that time, he’s coughed up at least four earned runs.
Even more cause for concern is the veteran’s 4.96 ERA away from home. That doesn’t bode well going into a matchup at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. In comparison, the Athletics are averaging the 12th-most runs per game in baseball (4.56). Five different regulars in this lineup have a wRC+ above 120. That includes All-Star Brent Rooker (123) and rookie standout Nick Kurtz (168). The A’s have scored five or more runs in five of their last six contests at home.
If the Astros are going to pull off a victory tonight, they can’t count entirely on Valdez. Unfortunately for Houston, this offense is averaging the sixth-fewest runs per game (4.18). The absence of slugger Yordan Alvarez (ankle) certainly doesn’t help. This month, the team has scored the ninth-fewest runs in baseball (88).
Still, it’s not as if the ‘Stros are taking on Greg Maddux tonight. That’s not to say Athletics hurler J.T. Ginn is a slouch. However, he’s been much worse at home. The right-hander has a ghastly 5.98 ERA when pitching at Sutter Health Park. During Ginn’s previous five starts at home, he’s on the hook for a 6.95 ERA.
Astros vs. Athletics pick, best bet
Best Bet: Astros vs. Athletics over 9.5 total runs (-108)
At this point, Valdez cannot be trusted anywhere, let alone a hitter’s haven. Ditto for Ginn, who has looked far worse when pitching at Sacramento. Given the talent on both of these lineups, I’m expecting plenty of scoring on Thursday afternoon.
