The Pirates and Reds play the second game of their three-game series on Wednesday, Sept. 24. The game has significant ramifications for the National League Wild Card race.
Cincinnati is a -121 favorite, while Pittsburgh is -101 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under seven runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Wednesday’s Pirates vs. Reds matchup.
Pirates vs. Reds prediction
Fans are in for a treat on Wednesday with Paul Skenes and Hunter Greene taking the mound for their respective teams. The two aces are set for a major matchup between NL Central rivals.
The Reds are fighting for the final Wild Card spot in the National League, while the Pirates are eliminated and playing spoiler. Pittsburgh won the first game of the series 4-2 on Tuesday.
It’ll be another difficult game for Cincinnati with arguably the best pitcher on the mound for Pittsburgh. Skenes has a 2.03 ERA and 209 strikeouts across 181.2 innings this year, looking un-hittable in most games.
His last start was one of his worst this season, however. He allowed three earned runs, three walks and seven hits across 3.2 innings. He still struck out six, but the Cubs made easy work of the second-year pitcher.
Greene isn’t on the same level as Skenes, but who is? That’s not to say Greene is a bad pitcher by any means. In fact, he’s one of the best in the National League this year. The 26-year-old proved that last season wasn’t a fluke, and that he’s the Reds’ ace.
He has a 2.74 ERA and 125 strikeouts through 101.2 innings this season. Although he pitched fewer innings this year than his first three seasons, his strikeout-walk ratio took a considerable jump from 3.0 last year to 5.2 this year.
Greene has become more than just a strikeout machine. He’s more reliable and has improved his control. This is his biggest start of the season as the Reds are one game back from the Mets for the final Wild Card spot. A strong outing is necessary.
Pirates vs. Reds pick, best bet
Although Skenes is one of the best pitchers in baseball, he often finds himself as the underdog in matchups. The Pirates are 68-89, while the Reds are 80-77, yet Cincinnati is only a -121 favorite.
That’s the power of Skenes. He hasn’t allowed three or more earned runs in back-to-back games this year, so it’s unlikely he breaks that trend on Wednesday. That said, Skenes likely isn’t pitching the entire game. Pittsburgh’s bullpen will have to take over at some point, and that’s when Cincinnati can strike.
Cash in on the Reds’ moneyline being at -121. It’s a must-win with so few games remaining.