The runway is getting short for the Padres, but after a 7-0 win against the Brewers on Tuesday, the team only finds itself 1.5 games back of the Dodgers in the hunt for the NL West crown. Of course, it helps that Los Angeles also blew a four-run lead and lost in Arizona last night. September baseball!
Can San Diego finish off the sweep and inch a little closer? Let’s preview this matinee matchup with the help of some of those odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Padres prediction, preview
I’m really not sure what to make of Dylan Cease’s season. On the one hand, the RHP has clearly been unlucky with a 68.2% strand rate, which is why his 3.64 FIP is exactly a run lower than his underwhelming 4.64 ERA. That being said, this is actually the third straight campaign where Cease has registered a strand rate below 70%, despite being one of the best strikeout pitchers in the world. Make this pattern make sense. On a positive note for Padres’ fans and bettors, Cease has been at his best in 2025 when toeing the rubber at Petco Park, possessing a 3.72 ERA and a 31.6% strikeout rate within the split. Conversely, in his 16 starts on the road, Cease owns a putrid 5.58 ERA.
Also working in Cease’s favor on Wednesday is the fact that the Brewers’ bats have gone cold in recent weeks. In fact, after getting shutout on Tuesday, the team owns just a .109 ISO and an 98 wRC+ across the past 14 days. It’s a span of time where Jackson Chourio is slashing just .189/.224/.264 with a 33 wRC+ in 58 plate appearances. Dark horse Rookie of the Year candidate Isaac Collins has been equally disappointing, with just a pair of singles in his past 21 at-bats. Milwaukee’s grip on the No. 1 seed in the NL is pretty tight, yet I’d assume the organization would like to see its big guns gets going before entering play in October.
Finally, let’s talk a little Chad Patrick. The rookie RHP was, at one point this season, the Brewers’ ace out of necessity. Now he finds himself back in the club’s rotation due to injuries to Jose Quintana (calf) and Brandon Woodruff (lat). It’s unclear if Patrick would draw a playoff start as Milwaukee’s roster is currently constructed, as the 27-year-old is likely behind both Jacob Misiorowski and Quinn Priester in the pecking order. However, Patrick has thrived whenever called upon in 2025, managing a 3.66 ERA and a 3.61 FIP across 115.2 innings of work. One of Patrick’s best outings of the season was ironically against San Diego back on June 6, with the right-hander allowing a single earned run over six innings with six strikeouts. He’ll try to recreate that magic this evening.
Brewers vs. Padres pick, best bet
Best Bet: Padres ML (-136)
San Diego’s won four straight and Dylan Cease has been fantastic at Petco Park in 2025.
