For the Los Angeles Dodgers, last night was a recurring nightmare: after Shohei Ohtani pitched six sterling innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the bullpen gave up five runs in three innings to lose as Tanner Scott blew his 10th game of the season. Combined with the San Diego Padres’ win over the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles failed to get any closer to clinching its 12th division title in 13 seasons.
The Dodgers will get another chance to get one step closer tonight when Game 2 of the penultimate series begins at 9:40 p.m. ET. Blake Snell will take the mound for Los Angeles, while Ryne Nelson gets the call for the Diamondbacks.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Arizona’s win last night meant it kept pace with the New York Mets, whose 9-7 comeback win over the Chicago Cubs vaulted them back over the Cincinnati Reds for a playoff spot, and now the Diamondbacks are tied with the Reds, trailing the Mets by one game. Cincinnati holds the tiebreaker over Arizona by beating them, 4-2, in the season series, and the Diamondbacks hold the tiebreaker over New York by virtue of their better division record. That Arizona is in this position at all is somewhat of a surprise: after selling corner infielders Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez at the trade deadline, it has gone 29-19 with a .763 OPS.
Nelson should be able to keep the Diamondbacks in the game long enough for the Dodgers’ bullpen to do what it does best. The 27-year-old has produced his career-best season, accumulating 148.0 innings across 32 appearances (22 starts) and recording a 3.34 ERA, including a 2.97 mark across 69.2 innings since the All-Star break. Nelson’s 19 pitching run value ranks in the 93rd percentile, thanks to a four-seam fastball that has ranked as the league’s second-most valuable pitch this season. However, his average exit velocity ranks in just the fourth percentile, and only three teams hit it harder than Los Angeles. He held the Dodgers to one run in five innings the last time he faced them on May 20, in a game that included in another Scott blown save.
But with all due respect to Nelson, Snell is simply the better pitcher. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will likely finish in the top four of the NL Cy Young Award race, but Snell has been Los Angeles’ most effective pitcher on a per-game basis. Since returning at the start of August from a shoulder injury that held him out for four months, Snell has recorded a 2.53 ERA (2.37 FIP), and he’s currently riding a 13-inning scoreless streak, walking four and striking out 23 over that span. The two-time Cy Young Award winner ranks in the league’s top quartile in all but three Statcast categories, and his only true weakness is issuing too many walks, but even that is partially skewed by a pair of four-walk performances when he was pitching injured.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Best Bet: Blake Snell O16.5 Outs Recorded (-115)
In his last start, Snell refused to leave the game with two outs in the seventh after issuing two straight walks, sending Roberts back to the dugout and Alex Vesia back to the bullpen. He should refuse again if Kirby Yates, Blake Treinen, or Roki Sasaki starts trotting towards the mound.
Strong Lean: Dodgers-Diamondbacks NRFI (-120)
Snell has had a clean first inning in eight of his 10 starts this season, and Nelson has only allowed a run in the first inning three times in his 22 starts. Ohtani could make me regret this with one swing, but this feels like a good bet.
