This is the finale of a three-game series in Arizona between the Diamondbacks and visiting Los Angeles Dodgers.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is scheduled to pitch for Los Angeles, while Zac Gallen is scheduled to pitch for Arizona.
Dodgers at Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Yamamoto has a 2.58 ERA through 167.2 innings. The FIP is higher at 2.99 as the BABIP is only .242. The strikeout rate is a robust 29.4% and the swinging strike rate is 12.5% with a 30.4% chase rate. The walk rate is elevated, though, at 8.6%. Yamamoto has allowed 14 home runs. The average exit velocity is 88.5 mph, barrel rate is 5.7% and the hard hit rate is 39.9%.
Ten of the 14 home runs have come off the bat of righties. The numbers are similar against both righties and lefties with the discrepancy in FIP due to the home runs allowed to righties. He’s essentially been site neutral.
In 29 starts, Yamamoto has allowed more than three earned runs four times and gone at least six innings 17 times. He has faced Arizona three times this season. The first meeting was back in May in Arizona; Yamamoto went five innings, walked one and struck out four while allowing five earned runs on six hits. Two starts later at home, he went seven innings, walked two and struck out nine without allowing an earned run on one hit. Four starts ago at home, he went seven innings, did not walk a batter and struck out 10 while allowing one earned run on four hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Diamondbacks rank 17th in strikeout rate, third in ISO and fifth in wOBA.
Gallen is having the worst season of his career. The ERA of 4.70 is a career-high while the 21.8% strikeout rate is a career-low. The walk rate is 8% and he’s allowed 30 home runs in 187.2 innings. The swinging strike rate is 9.5% while the chase rate is 29.6%. The barrel rate is a career-high at 9.5% while the hard hit rate is 42.9%.
Eighteen of the 30 home runs have come off the bat of righties. The K-BB% is 6.3% higher against righties, but the home runs make the FIP the same against lefties. Gallen has been site neutral.
In 32 starts, Gallen has allowed more than three earned runs 15 times and gone at least six innings 21 times. He’s faced the Dodgers twice the season. The first meeting was at home in May; he went 5.2 innings, walked two and struck out five while allowing four earned runs on 10 hits. The second meeting was five starts ago in Los Angeles and Gallen went six innings, walked three and struck out eight without allowing an earned run on two hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Dodgers have the 18th-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the fourth-best ISO, and rank fourth in wOBA.
As for the bullpens since Aug. 1, Los Angeles ranks 21st in FIP while Arizona ranks 22nd.
Dodgers at Diamondbacks pick, best bet
I have the utmost faith in Yamamoto and the opposite in Gallen. The Dodgers bullpen does scare me, though.
