After the first month of the college football season, there has been a major shake-up in the 2025 Heisman odds. An injury to frontrunner John Mateer has dropped him down the odds board, making Fernando Mendoza the new favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Post-Week 4 Heisman Odds Update
The Heisman Trophy race seemed wide open after the first couple of weeks of the season. Preseason favorites like Arch Manning, Cade Klubnik, LaNorris Sellers, and DJ Lagway all struggled to start the season, dropping them down the odds board. The top teams in the country all had unknown quarterbacks like Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, Alabama’s Ty Simpson and Georgia’s Gunner Stockton. That made it seemingly anyone’s race, until Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer took the reins. Mateer was the favorite after Week 2, then, after beating Auburn last week, had really established himself as the clear frontrunner for the award. However, Mateer suffered a thumb injury that requires surgery and will cause him to miss at least three weeks, which includes Oklahoma’s massive game against Texas.
Mateer is still 25:1 to win the Heisman, meaning oddsmakers are not quite counting him out. Oklahoma has a bye week ahead, followed by a cupcake game against Kent State, then the big game against Texas. Mateer is hoping to return against South Carolina in a month. If he can pick up where he left off and lead Oklahoma to the College Football Playoff, he still has a chance to win the award. However, his play would need to be nearly flawless to win the Heisman after missing multiple games.
The new favorite to win the award is Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. Over his past three games, Mendoza has 14 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. He played a nearly flawless game in Indiana’s blowout win over a top-ten Illinois team. Mendoza now leads the country in passing touchdowns. If Indiana continues to roll through the Big Ten, he will be a real contender for the award. The other players that have rocketed up the odds board are Miami quarterback Carson Beck, Oregon quarterback Dante Moore and Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton. Stockton has a massive game against Alabama this weekend, and Moore has a huge game against Penn State. The results of these games could cause another big shift in the Heisman odds.
This is my favorite Heisman bet at the current odds:
Ty Simpson (+2000)
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson looked a bit shaky in his first start against Florida State. However, he has been superb since that opening game. He threw for 382 yards and four touchdowns against Wisconsin in his last game. This week, he has a massive game ahead against Georgia. This could be Simpson’s chance to have a “Heisman moment” that could rocket him up the odds board. If Alabama upsets Georgia on the road, Simpson could be the new favorite by next week.
Kalen DeBoer’s offense is built for quarterbacks to rack up stats. At Washington, Michael Penix Jr. was the 2023 Heisman runner-up. With the massive games ahead on Alabama’s schedule, Simpson will get plenty of chances to dazzle on the national stage. All the opportunities are there for Simpson; he just needs to continue performing at a high level. If he can lead Alabama to the College Football Playoff and continue to play like he did against Wisconsin, he has a great shot to win the Heisman Trophy.
