Last year, Brian Thomas Jr. was one of the breakout stars of the NFL. As a rookie, BTJ reeled in 87 catches for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns, providing easy fantasy football WR1 value. Naturally, expectations for Jacksonville’s star receiver were through the roof going into year two and Thomas Jr. was a high target in fantasy drafts. But through three weeks, he’s come in as WR54 in PPR scoring formats. So, is it time to panic about Brian Thomas Jr. in fantasy football?
Analysis
The primary concern for Brian Thomas Jr. is the efficiency of his targets. Through the first three games, Thomas Jr. has reeled in 7-of-25 targets, a paltry 28% catch rate. Last year, he brought in 65.4% of his targets. He’s already dropped four balls compared to seven drops last year. The QBR targeting BTJ has gone from 106.2 to 29.6. Keep in mind that seven of the games last year were helmed by Mac Jones, now the 49ers’ backup QB. Thomas Jr. finally has Trevor Lawrence under center full-time, and has looked brutally bad.
There’s another problem that isn’t going anywhere. New passing game coordinator Shane Waldron, a hire by head coach Liam Coen, has left a trail of rough seasons from future breakout receivers in his wake. It’s fair to wonder if a trend is forming here. Thomas Jr.’s schedule also isn’t getting any easier. Before the bye week, Jacksonville faces the 49ers, Chiefs, Seahawks, and Rams — all great defenses.
So, where does this leave us with BTJ?
The verdict
You should absolutely explore trade options. If you can get anything of legitimate value for him, like other flex options or a starter at a position of need, I’d pull the trigger. The tough part is finding anything other than bottom-barrel value for BTJ right now.
The more realistic option is treating him as a WR3 or flex option and hoping he can recapture some form. However, it is likely that the alpha WR1 we saw last year won’t be returning anytime soon — a tough break for BTJ owners.
