There’s about 10 teams that are going into tonight’s slate thinking this is a “do-or-die” type of game. That’s the beauty of late September baseball. However, of all those clubs, the Astros might need a victory the most.
After what seemed like a season-saving sweep of the Rangers last week, Houston has now dropped its last four contests, which has dropped the team right out of a playoff spot. The Astros are now a single game back of the similarly reeling Tigers.
Can Houston right the ship on Wednesday in Sacramento? Let’s preview this crucial divisional matchup with the help of some of those odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros vs. Athletics prediction, preview
Technically, the season isn’t on the line for the Astros tonight. But if it was, there’s no pitcher that they would rather have on the mound than Hunter Brown. If 2024 was the breakout campaign for the former fifth-round pick, 2025 has been the confirmation that Brown is simply one of the best arms in all of baseball. Coming into this evening’s action, Brown’s 2.30 ERA is the third-lowest qualified mark in MLB, trailing only the reigning (and likely future) Cy Young Award winners in Paul Skenes (2.03) and Tarik Skubal (2.21). More recently, Brown’s tossed at least six innings in seven straight outings, while he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a start since all the way back in mid-July. The 27-year-old is Houston’s ace and he should continue to be for a long time.
Still, the term “ace” can be an odd one. Luis Severino was certainly paid this offseason to be the Athletics’ ace, yet the results have not backed up the money — especially when Severino is forced to take the mound at Sutter Health Park. The veteran RHP has been extremely outspoken about his dislike for playing in a Triple-A stadium, and an ugly 6.51 home ERA legitimizes his claims. Opponents are slashing a robust .297/.363/.459 off Severino in Sacramento, as the 31-year-old possesses an inflated 1.61 WHIP within the split. Not surprisingly, the A’s have struggled to a 4-10 record in Severino’s starts in Sutter Health Park.
The question now becomes: Can the Astros take advantage of Severino’s flaws? Houston has not hit well across the past two weeks, and the loss of Yordan Alvarez (ankle) continues to be a massive blow. The Astros rank in the lower-third of MLB in batting average (.219), ISO (.122) and wRC+ (75) across the past 14 days. It hasn’t helped matters that Isaac Paredes is just 2-for-15 with seven strikeouts since coming off the IL. Or that Jeremy Pena has missed two contests in a row with an oblique issue. Woof.
Astros vs. Athletics pick, best bet
Best Bet: Astros ML (-132)
Hunter Brown has been a top five starter this season and the Astros need him now more than ever.
Strong Lean: Under 9 (-113)
Keep an eye on the status of Jeremy Pena, but if he’s out again, it’s hard to imagine Houston scores too many runs on Wednesday — even with Sutter Health Park’s reputation.
