The Seattle Mariners are headed to the playoffs for just the second time since 2001 and have won 15 of their last 16 games to surge down the stretch. They won 4-3 over the Rockies in the first game of this series on Tuesday and now have their sights set on the AL West title, which they can clinch with another win on Wednesday night or a loss by the Astros in Sacramento. The second game of the series will get underway at 9:40 p.m. ET this Wednesday and should be one of the most exciting matchups of the night.
After catching fire, the Mariners are up to 88-69, just two games behind the Blue Jays for the best record in the American League and likely on their way to a first-round bye in the playoffs. The Rockies, on the other hand, are 43-114 and an incredible 45 games out of first place in the NL West. They took two of three games from the Angels to finish the Coors Field part of their schedule over the weekend before losing on Tuesday, but they’re a woeful 18-58 this season on the road.
The Mariners are extremely heavy home favorites at -308 on the Moneyline, with the run total for the game set at 7.5. Let’s preview this Wednesday night matchup with the help of some odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rockies at Mariners prediction, preview
The Mariners will likely play their regulars for at least one more game to secure the division with a win on Wednesday. They may try and get some rest and line up their pitching after that, but it makes sense for them to stay fully locked in for at least one more matchup.
The Mariners will give the ball to Luis Castillo while the Rockies counter with Tanner Gordon. Castillo is 10-8 on the season and has been one of the most reliable options in the rotation, logging 30+ starts for the third straight year in Seattle. He posted a 3.63 ERA and 3.96 FIP and stayed effective even though his strikeout rate dipped a little bit from last year.
Castillo has pitched exactly six innings in three straight outings and given up a total of just two runs on 10 hits in those 18 innings. He had 14 strikeouts in those games, getting wins over the Braves and Royals, plus a no-decision against the Angels.
On the other side of the matchup, Tanner Gordon is 6-7 in his 14 starts with the Rockies this year, with a 6.00 ERA and 4.65 FIP. It hasn’t been all Coors-impacted either, since in his 24 1/3 road innings, he has a 7.40 ERA, 4.79 FIP, and five homers allowed.
Lefties have specifically smashed Gordon on the road, hitting four homers with a .405 wOBA. Those splits are why Josh Naylor is in my top home run props of the day, and why you can stack up Mariners left-handed and switch-hitting options like Cal Raleigh, Jorge Polanco, and even J.P. Crawford.
Naylor came through in the clutch for the Mariners on Tuesday, finishing 12-for-4 with a double and three RBI. He has been incredibly locked in at the plate, going 14-for-31 (.452) over his last eight games with a 44.8% hard-hit rate and .471 wOBA. In those eight games, he has 28 HRR (Hits, Runs and RBI) and 20 total bases.
The Rockies have some solid hitters as well, with Mickey Moniak and Jordan Beck leading the way if you’re seeking Rockies hitters for props to play. I included Beck as a cheap outfielder in my top DFS picks of the day as well.
Rockies vs. Mariners pick, best bet
Best Bet: Josh Naylor 3+ Hits + Runs + RBI (+134)
The Mariners are such heavy favorites that even the run line and picking Castillo to record the win don’t come with very long odds. For something a little more exciting, I’m taking Naylor for 3+ HRR. Over his last eight games, he’s averaging 5.0 HRR, and over his last 51 games since joining the Mariners, he’s averaging 2.7 HRR per contest. Since Gordon struggles against lefties, there are plenty of paths for Naylor to get to 3+ HRR, especially if the Mariners’ offense stays hot as a unit.
Strong Lean: Tanner Gordon over 4.5 strikeouts (+107)
Even though I think Gordon has a good chance of getting knocked around, I love his strikeout prop at this price. He has at least five strikeouts in four of his last five starts and fell just short of this with four strikeouts against the Marlins in his most recent outing. Since this is likely his last appearance of the year, he could have a longer leash. Even though the Mariners have been hot, they still have a high strikeout rate, setting Gordon up for at least five K’s.
