While the Chicago Cubs have had a playoff spot locked up for a week, the New York Mets are still fighting for their lives in the NL Wild Card race. Rookie right-hander Jonah Tong will have to deal with that pressure Wednesday evening, when he faces off against faltered Cy Young contender Matthew Boyd at 8:05 p.m. ET.
The Cubs are -120 moneyline favorites despite dropping yesterday’s game and extending their losing streak to five. The run total for tonight is set at 7. Here is a preview of the Wednesday night showdown at Wrigley Field featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Mets prediction, preview
The Mets currently hold the third and final NL Wild Card spot, boasting a one-game lead over both the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks with five games left on the schedule. Their odds to make the playoffs still stand at -145, so they remain favored to survive into October.
Starter David Peterson gave up five earned in 1.1 innings on Tuesday, meaning the Mets had to burn through six relievers to get through the rest of the night. As clutch as Edwin Díaz’s five-strikeout, six-out save was, it effectively renders him a non-factor for at least Wednesday. Without their star closer available, New York will need to build out an early lead in order to feel comfortable in the final few frames.
That responsibility will partially fall to Tong, who put together his cleanest outing of the season last time he took the mound. The 22-year-old gave up 14 total runs in his first three career starts, then held the San Diego Padres to one unearned last Thursday. The Mets are 2-2 when Tong gets the nod, and he has lasted at least 5.0 innings in three of his four appearances. New York needs that kind of length out of Tong, given their bullpen usage on Tuesday. Chicago may have gotten to Peterson early, but Cincinnati Reds’ starters put up a 2.31 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over an average of 5.2 innings in their four-game sweep over the Cubs last weekend.
Boyd, on the other hand, had asserted himself as one of the hottest pitchers in baseball before Tong ever reached the majors. The veteran was sitting at 11-4 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.03 WHIP through August 7. In his last eight starts, however, Boyd is 2-4 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Over his last seven starts, he has given up seven home runs.
At the plate, Chicago’s offense ranks 24th in runs since September 6. They have scored 3.6 runs per game across Boyd’s last 10 starts, over which period they are 3-7.
Cubs vs. Mets pick, best bet
Best Bet: Mets ML (-102)
The Mets’ hopes of clinching the series rest on Tong’s shoulders. The rookie gave up four walks, three hits and three home runs in his first career road start, but he didn’t walk any of the 18 batters he faced in his most recent outing. As for the home runs, those came in Cincinnati — the second-most home run-conducive park in baseball. Wrigley Field is the second-most pitcher-friendly park in the majors, with wind routinely blowing in from the outfield. In a setting that sets Tong up to eat up innings and lets his offense continue to bury Boyd, New York should come out on top.
Strong Lean: Francisco Lindor 2+ Hits (+233)
On top of riding an 11-game hitting streak, Lindor has notched multiple hits in three of his last seven games. He is also a .361 hitter with a 1.021 OPS in 36 career at-bats against Boyd. Add in the fact that he leads the NL in both at-bats and plate appearances, and Lindor should have plenty of opportunities to get aboard on Wednesday.
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