With just five games remaining, it’s now or never for both the St. Louis Cardinals and the San Francisco Giants. Both teams are 77-80 and trail the Cincinnati Reds by 3.5 games for the final NL Wild Card spot, so barring one team sweeping and several teams above them imploding, it seems like it’s more likely to be never for both. Regardless, they’ll face off for two more potentially important games at Oracle Park.
The middle game of the series will start tonight at 9:45 p.m. ET. Logan Webb will crest the hill for San Francisco, while the Cardinals turn to Andre Pallante.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants prediction, preview
Both teams have had an awful offense in September so far, as St. Louis has posted the fourth-worst OPS this month and the Giants have been 10th-to-last. The charge that San Francisco made towards the end of August to keep itself in the playoff fight has come undone, as the team has lost eight of its last 10 contests, although part of that malaise can be explained by a difficult schedule. The Cardinals have had the opposite momentum swing, losing five straight games against the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers to all but take themselves out of contention but have bounced back with five wins in their last eight, including a 6-5 rally in last night’s series opener.
Tonight’s pitching matchup unequivocally favors the Giants. Webb has earned Cy Young Award votes in each of the last three seasons, and his 2.69 FIP this season is the lowest of his career. He’s one of the league’s most reliable arms, leading the NL in innings for the third straight season and pacing the Senior Circuit in strikeouts for the first time. Though he’s regressed slightly in the second half of the season, he’s still allowed two or fewer runs in three of his four starts this month and has pitched to a 3.18 ERA at home. In particular, his control is elite and he consistently induces ground balls, which could neutralize an offense that has hit grounders at the 10th-lowest rate.
Pallante, meanwhile, has been one of the league’s worst starters, recording negative-0.9 WAR this season. St. Louis has lost 19 of his 30 starts, and the veteran has posted a 5.29 ERA, including a putrid 6.64 mark since the All-Star break. To be fair, the last time the Cardinals won one of Pallante’s starts came on September 6 against San Francisco, and Pallante turned in six innings of five-hit, two-run ball, but the Giants’ starter that day was Justin Verlander, a worse pitcher than Webb. Pallante is just incapable of missing bats, notching a 24th-percentile whiff rate and a fifth-percentile strikeout rate. However, he’s been slightly better on the road, and Oracle Park is a very pitcher-friendly venue.
St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants pick, best bet
Best Bet: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+109)
Momentum is very much not in San Francisco’s favor, but it’s hard not to back the Giants to cover the spread when St. Louis has dropped 13 of Pallante’s last 15 starts, including 11 by multiple runs. San Francisco has won by multiple runs in two of Webb’s last four home starts.
Strong Lean: Logan Webb O18.5 Outs Recorded (+109)
Webb has pitched into the seventh inning on 15 separate occasions, including in nine of 17 starts at home. The Cardinals have made a lot of contact, and they don’t walk much, which is a great recipe for Webb to cruise through at least 6.1 innings quickly.
