Less than a week remains in the 2025 MLB season. That means the time is now for teams looking to improve their postseason positioning. That includes the Padres, currently slotted into the National League’s second wildcard spot. Trailing the Cubs by 2.5 games, there’s still a chance San Diego hosts a playoff round next week. To make things more enticing, the Friars still have an outside shot at catching the Dodgers in the NL West (3.0 GB).
It’s a different story for the Brewers, owners of the Senior Circuit’s top record. However, Milwaukee needs to keep racking up wins to hold onto home-field advantage. Which of these World Series contenders will earn a victory tonight? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s matchup between the Brewers and the Padres.
San Diego is favored (-111) over Milwaukee, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Brewers vs. Padres prediction, preview
There’s still an outside chance the Phillies catch the Brewers for the NL’s top seed. However, it appears as though Milwaukee already has its eyes set on the playoffs. Starting tonight will be Bruce Zimmermann, making his first appearance of the season. In fact, the 30-year-old hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2023, as a member of the Orioles. During his brief MLB career, the southpaw owns a lackluster 5.57 ERA. During 28 outings for Triple A-Nashville this season, Zimmermann owns a 4.50 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 109 strikeouts.
On paper, this is a difficult matchup. San Diego is loaded with former All-Stars, including sluggers Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. That hasn’t resulted in elite offensive production. The Padres are averaging 4.27 runs per game, the 12th-lowest mark in baseball. General manager A.J. Preller made a solid effort to improve the club’s hitting, trading for Ramon Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn and Freddy Fermin. Those additions have helped, but this group remains a notch below the sport’s elite lineups. In addition, the Friars are slugging .369 against left-handed pitching, tenth-worst in the league.
San Diego could use a solid performance from tonight’s pitcher, Randy Vasquez. An afterthought during 2023’s Juan Soto trade, the righty has been a solid back-end starter. Through 125.2 innings of work this season, he’s accounted for a 3.94 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 74 strikeouts. The Dominican has been effective, but he’s also been fortunate. Per Baseball Savant, Vasquez’s xERA sits at 5.63, one of the biggest disparities in baseball. Regardless, taking the mound at pitcher-friendly Petco Park tends to help limit offensive output.
Tonight’s matchup isn’t for the faint of heart. Milwaukee is among baseball’s best offenses, ranking inside the top three in runs (794) and on-base percentage (.334). In addition, the Brewers are averaging the league’s second-most runs per game on the road (5.33). If there’s any saving grace for Vasquez, it’s his ability to induce soft contact. San Diego’s elite defense is more than capable of helping the 26-year-old get out of any jams, as well. Milwaukee, for all its positive traits, only ranks 20th in home runs (163).
Brewers vs. Padres pick, best bet
Best Bet: Padres ML (-111)
It’s difficult to fade the Brewers, a team that tends to prove people wrong. However, Milwaukee has little to play for at this point. San Diego still has an outside shot at an NL West title. Vasquez, while lucky, still deserves more benefit of the doubt than Zimmermann, essentially a minor league pitcher. A more motivated Padres squad is the safer bet on Tuesday.
