This is the opener of a three-game series in Philadelphia between the Phillies and visiting Miami Marlins.
Edward Cabrera is scheduled to pitch for Miami, while Cristopher Sanchez is scheduled to pitch for Philadelphia.
Marlins at Phillies prediction, preview
Edward Cabrera has improved his control, leading to a 3.57 ERA and 3.7 FIP. The walk rate was 15.8%, 11.3%, 15.2% and 12% the four years. It’s down at 7.7% through 128.2 innings this season. The strikeout rate is still a solid 25.8% with a 12.7% swinging strike rate and 30.2% chase rate. Cabrera has allowed 15 home runs. The average exit velocity is 89.8 mph, barrel rate is 8% and the hard-hit rate is 45.3%.
Nine of the 15 home runs have come off the bat of lefties. Nine of the 15 home runs have been served up on the road. The K-BB% is 3.8 percentage points higher against righties. The K-BB% is 2.4 percentage points higher at home while the FIP is 3.16 vs. 4.43. The culprit is the 1.49 HR/9 vs. 0.73 at home.
In 24 starts, Cabrera has allowed more than three earned runs six times and gone at least six innings seven times. Cabrera faced Philadelphia back in June at home, going 6.1 innings with three walks and five strikeouts while allowing one earned run on two hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Phillies rank 26th in strikeout rate, eighth in ISO, and third in wOBA.
Cristopher Sanchez has been one of the best pitchers in the MLB. The ERA of 2.66 is supported by the 2.65 FIP. The strikeout rate is a career-high 25.9% while the walk rate is only 5.6%. The swinging strike rate is 13.5% and the chase rate is 31.3%. The barrel rate is only 6%. He’s allowed only 12 home runs.
11 of the 12 home runs have come off the bat of righties. Sanchez has only faced 162 lefties this season. The numbers are similar for both righties and lefties. He’s been better at home. The K-BB% is 25.4% at home vs. 16.3% on the road.
In 30 starts, Sanchez has allowed more than three earned runs four times and gone at least six innings 23 times. He faced Miami twice this season. The first meeting was back in June in Miami. Sanchez went eight innings as he struck out four and allowed one earned run on five hits. The second meeting was three starts ago in Miami again. Sanchez went seven innings, walked one and struck out five while allowing one earned run on six hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Marlins have the 26th-highest strikeout rate in the MLB, the 23rd-best ISO, and rank 22nd in wOBA.
As for the bullpens since August 1, Miami ranks 30th in FIP while Philadelphia ranks 18th.
Marlins at Phillies pick, best bet
I love Sanchez in this one. I do think Cabrera pitches well, but the bullpen is a concern.
