Few teams have been more surprising this year than the Indianapolis Colts. At 3-0, they have the look of a real playoff threat in what many assumed to be a rebuilding year. But with Daniel Jones balling out in his first few games as a Colt, their outlook has changed entirely. Before the year, Jonathan Taylor was the only safe bet to deliver serious value in Indianapolis. Now we have multiple options to consider, including Colts’ top wideout Michael Pittman Jr.
Can Pittman put in a case for the fantasy WR1 on the Colts? Or will he have other challengers?
Analysis
It’s no surprise that first-round tight end Tyler Warren has been involved early in the offense. But it is a surprise that he’s led the team in targets and tied for the team lead in receiving yards through three weeks. Up the seams, in the flats, working between zones, he’s done it all. But Warren’s arrival on the scene has not taken away from Pittman and the rest of the receiving group. In fact, it has elevated them.
Pittman is tied with Warren for the most receiving yards with 193, while being second on the team in targets. Currently the WR12 in PPR formats, Pittman’s high target floor and touchdown upside have led to some great results so far. He’s caught two of their three receiving scores on the year while showing great chemistry with Jones.
But the target distribution is worth noting. Warren leads with 21, then Pittman at 19, followed by Josh Downs at 14 and Alec Pierce at 13. It’s been a pass game by committee formula, and the results have been excellent, but they won’t score 34 PPG all season long. There will be down weeks sooner or later. Can you trust Pittman to be the WR1 for Jones when the chips are down?
The verdict
I still have faith in Pittman’s week-to-week floor. He’s cleared 80% of the snaps and garnered at least five targets in all three weeks. When the Colts are in a flow state like they’ve been for the last three weeks, they run the ball. There’s a reason why Taylor leads the league in carries.
When the game script goes against them, the hierarchy in the wide receiver room becomes clear. Pierce is the boom-or-bust deep threat, Pittman works the intermediate routes, and Downs works from the slot to move the chains. If they’re in gotta-have-it passing mode, Pittman will be getting the most valuable work from those wide receivers. It remains to be seen whether Pittman or Warren will be the top overall pass game target on the team, but I have faith in Pittman leading this receiving group for the rest of the season.
