For most of the 2025 season, the Houston Astros have held a playoff position, and for most of the last couple of months, they’ve had a greater than 90% chance of appearing in October, per FanGraphs. Now, though, the Astros’ position is precarious: they’ve been passed by the Cleveland Guardians after getting swept by the Seattle Mariners in, effectively, a quest for the division title.
Not all is lost, though; while the Guardians have a division-deciding series of their own against the Detroit Tigers, Houston now has a road series against the long-eliminated Athletics.
The series opener is set to begin at 10:05 p.m. ET. Cristian Javier will take the mound for the Astros, while the Athletics will turn to Jeffrey Springs.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Houston Astros at Athletics prediction, preview
Houston is hobbling to the finish line — literally. After losing star outfielder Yordan Álvarez to an ankle injury last Monday, the Astros have posted the league’s eighth-worst OPS and gone 2-3. None of their losses to the Mariners were particularly close, as they lost two by four runs and required a meaningless grand slam while in a 6-0 hole in the other. In particular, their pitching, which had been a strong point all season, has regressed, as they’ve posted an ERA nearly 0.7 runs worse in the second half of the season than the first. After a sweep over the Cincinnati Reds last week, the Athletics went 3-3 on a six-game road trip to climb out of the division’s basement, but they have been poor offensively over the last week, getting shut out twice in a row.
Springs performed well in his last start, limiting the Boston Red Sox to one unearned run on five hits and three walks in four innings of work, and overall, he’s tended to pitch well enough to give the Athletics a chance to win. They’re 14-17 in his starts overall but 8-8 since June 20, and the one time Springs faced Houston this season, he turned in six innings of four-hit, two-run ball as Nick Kurtz had a four-homer game in a 15-3 blowout. Advanced stats aren’t as kind to the 33-year-old, though, as his 4.35 expected ERA sits in just the 36th percentile and he struggles to strike batters out. Most damningly, he is bad at producing ground balls, which is a major reason for his 5.00 ERA at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, where it’s projected to be 92 degrees Fahrenheit at game time.
While there’s no variability surrounding Springs, the Astros are on shaky footing with Javier headed into the playoffs. Though the 28-year-old has looked good in his seven starts since returning from Tommy John surgery, posting a decent 4.45 ERA (3.89 FIP) in 32.1 innings, that’s an awfully small sample size for a guy who projects to be in the postseason rotation. The underlying numbers look good — his .215 expected batting average against would be in the top quartile if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify — but like Springs, he hasn’t kept his pitches down. Plus, while he’s looked good at Daikin Park, he’s only made two road starts, pitching to a 7.88 ERA.
Houston Astros at Athletics pick, best bet
Best Bet: Houston Astros Moneyline (-110)
With both teams -110 on the Moneyline, this game is a pure toss-up. Houston has been one of the league’s better teams on the road, and the Athletics haven’t been quite as good at home. Plus, Springs’ poor track record at Sutter Health Park has occurred over a large sample, which can’t be said of Javier’s on the road.
Strong Lean: Over 10.5 Runs (-107)
As I’ve mentioned repeatedly, Springs has been bad at home and Javier has been bad on the road, and it’ll be a sweltering late-summer evening in California’s capital. It doesn’t matter how cold both offenses have been; Sutter Health Park is a venue that cures all offensive ills.
