This is the opener of a three-game series in Cleveland between the Guardians and visiting Detroit Tigers.
Tarik Skubal is scheduled to pitch for Detroit, while Gavin Williams is scheduled to pitch for Cleveland.
Tigers at Guardians prediction, preview
Tarik Skubal won the AL Cy Young Award last season for reasons. He led the league in strikeouts, wins and ERA last season. Translation: he’s freaking awesome. The numbers are almost identical this season, except for the wins. The ERA is 2.23, which is supported by the 2.47 FIP. The strikeout rate is 32.2%, walk rate is only 4.1% and he’s allowed only 18 home runs in 189.1 innings. The average exit velocity is 86.3 mph, barrel rate is a little high at 8.3% but the hard hit rate is only 33.1%. The swinging strike rate is a whopping 16.6% while the chase rate is 34.6%.
17 of the 18 home runs have come off the bat of righties. He’s only faced 142 lefties this season, compared to 582 righties. 11 of the 18 home runs have been served up on the road. The K-BB% is slightly higher against righties – 28.2% vs. 27.5%. He’s been slightly better at home, as the K-BB% is 2.6% higher while the FIP is 0.81 lower, primarily due to the home run discrepancy.
In 30 starts, Skubal has allowed more than three earned runs six times and gone at least six innings 22 times. He has faced Cleveland three times this season. The first meeting was at home back in May and he threw a complete-game shutout with 13 strikeouts and two hits allowed. The second meeting was in Cleveland in July and Skubal went seven innings, struck out 10 and did not allow an earned run or walk on one hit. The third outing came in his last start at home. Skubal went six innings, walked two and struck out nine while allowing one earned run on seven hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Guardians rank 11th in strikeout rate, 21st in ISO, and 27th in wOBA.
Gavin Williams has a 3.06 ERA through 161.2 innings. The fastball averages 96.7 mph and the strikeout rate is 23.7%. Unfortunately, the walk rate is high at 11.9% and the FIP is higher at 4.48. The BABIP is only .252 while the strand rate is 83.7%, so he’s been fortunate. The average exit velocity is 90.5 mph, barrel rate is 8.7% and the hard hit rate is 44.6%. He’s allowed 22 home runs.
The numbers are similar against both righties and lefties. Williams has been much better at home, as the K-BB% is 17% vs. 6.7% on the road. The FIP is 3.81 at home and 5.15 on the road.
In 30 starts, Williams has allowed more than three earned runs five times and gone at least six innings 14 times. He has faced Detroit twice this season. The first outing was back in July at home and Williams went six innings, walked three and struck out eight without allowing an earned run on one hit. The second outing came in his last start and he went five innings, walked two and struck out nine without allowing an earned run on three hits. My handy dandy abacus is telling me that he has not allowed an earned run to the Tigers this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Tigers have the third-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the 12th-best ISO, and rank 19th in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Detroit ranks 27th in FIP, while Cleveland ranks first.
Tigers at Guardians pick, best bet
If the total was 4, I’d still probably take the under. I’m kidding; not kidding.
