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Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees prediction, pick for Tuesday 9/23/25

Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees prediction, pick for Tuesday 9/23/25

Sports Betting Picks MLB DraftKings Sportsbook Insights

Published:

By: Stan Son

This is the opener of a three-game series in New York between the Yankees and visiting Chicago White Sox.

Shane Smith is scheduled to pitch for Chicago, while Luis Gil is scheduled to pitch for New York.

White Sox at Yankees prediction, preview

Shane Smith has a 4.06 ERA and 4.34 FIP. The fastball averages 95.8 mph and the strikeout rate is 22.5%. The walk rate is the big issue at 9.4%. Smith has allowed 17 home runs in 135.1 innings. The barrel rate is 7.1% but the hard-hit rate is 46.7%. The swinging strike rate is 11.9% but the chase rate is 26.2%.

13 of the 17 home runs have come off the bat of lefties. 10 of the 17 home runs have been served up on the road. The numbers are similar against righties and lefties, but the home run discrepancy makes the FIP much higher against lefties. Same deal for the home/road splits.

In 27 starts, Smith has allowed more than three earned runs seven times and gone at least six innings seven times. He faced New York four starts ago at home and went 6.1 innings, walked two and struck out seven while allowing two earned runs on three hits.

Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees rank 10th in strikeout rate, first in ISO, and second in wOBA.

Luis Gil has a 3.33 ERA but the FIP is higher at 4.1 in 46 innings. The walk rate has been double-digits in every year of his career, and it’s up at 14.4% this season. Yuck. The strikeout rate is only 17.9%. The average exit velocity is 91 mph, barrel rate is 8.1% and the hard hit rate is 42.2%. The chase rate is only 21.4%. He’s allowed two home runs.

The K-BB% is 0% against lefties and 7.2% against righties. Gil has been site neutral.

In nine starts, Gil has allowed more than three earned runs twice and gone at least six innings twice. He faced Chicago four starts ago on the road and went 5.1 innings, walked two and struck out seven while allowing two earned runs on four hits.

Against right-handed pitching, the White Sox have the 17th-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the 12th-best ISO, and rank 15th in wOBA.

As for the bullpens since August 1, Chicago ranks 12th in FIP while New York ranks 15th.

White Sox at Yankees pick, best bet

Both pitchers get hit hard and have control issues. I like the offenses, especially the lefties.

Best Bet: Over 9 Runs (-101)

Stan Son
Stan joined DraftKings in December of 2020. It was a glorious time, except for that whole COVID thing, when we got Madden streams and boisterous bat flips from the KBO. I was brought on board to bring some West Coast flavor. I especially love hoops, and most of my content is in that arena. When I walk along the beach, strumming my guitar, the beat that I hear is not one of crashing waves. No, it is the beat of the ball bouncing off the hardwood with highs provided by the squeaks of the sneakers. Ball is life.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.