This is the opener of a three-game series in Toronto between the Blue Jays and visiting Boston Red Sox.
Lucas Giolito is scheduled to pitch for Boston, while Kevin Gausman is scheduled to pitch for Toronto.
Red Sox at Blue Jays prediction, preview
Lucas Giolito had a strikeout rate in the 25% range the last few seasons. After missing all of 2024 due to injury, the strikeout rate is down at 20%, but the ERA is 3.46, his lowest since 2019. The FIP is higher though at 4.17. The walk rate is 8.8% and he’s allowed 17 home runs in 140.1 innings.
11 of the 17 home runs have been served up on the road. The K-BB% is 4.6% higher against lefties and the FIP is lower. The numbers are similar on the road and at home except for the home run discrepancy.
In 25 starts, Giolito has allowed more than three earned runs seven times while going at least six innings 14 times. He faced Toronto twice this season. The first meeting was the first start of the season in April. Giolito went six innings, walked two hitters and struck out seven while allowing three earned runs on five hits. The second meeting was at home in June and he went seven innings, walked one batter and struck out five without allowing an earned run on six hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Blue Jays rank 29th in strikeout rate, 13th in ISO, and sixth in wOBA.
Kevin Gausman has a 3.38 ERA and 3.52 FIP through 183.2 innings. The strikeout rate is 24.3% while the walk rate is 6.5%. He’s allowed 21 home runs. The average exit velocity is 89.3 mph, barrel rate is 8.4% and the hard-hit rate is 41.1%. The swinging strike rate is 12.5% and the chase rate is 31.1%.
14 of the 21 home runs have been served up at home. The numbers are similar against righties and lefties, with a slightly higher K-BB% against righties. The K-BB% is 5.8% higher at home but the HR/9 is 1.46 vs. 0.65 on the road.
In 30 starts, Gausman has allowed more than three earned runs six times and gone at least six innings 19 times. He’s allowed one earned run or fewer in the last four starts. He faced Boston way back in April on the road and went eight innings and struck out 10 batters without allowing an earned run on four hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Red Sox have the ninth-highest strikeout rate in the MLB, the ninth-best ISO, and rank 11th in wOBA.
As for the bullpens since August 1, Boston ranks fourth in FIP while Toronto ranks 16th.
Red Sox at Blue Jays pick, best bet
Gausman has been pitching so well and I like that trend to be our friend. Giolito scares me a but I don’t think the leash would be long if he struggles, plus the Red Sox bullpen has been very good.
