Only four running backs in college football history ever rushed for more than 2,500 yards in a single season: Hall of Famer Barry Sanders, two-time Pro Bowler Melvin Gordon, Kevin Smith, and, last season, Ashton Jeanty. Fans’ expectations for Jeanty were high after his historic junior season at Boise State: the Las Vegas Raiders drafted him sixth overall, and he was regularly drafted near the end of the first round in fantasy leagues this season.
So far, he’s underwhelmed. The 21-year-old has turned his 47 carries into just 144 yards and one score, and his five catches have resulted in only three yards. His 38.8% success rate ranks eighth-to-last among 45 qualified running backs, his 3.1 yards per carry fifth-to-last, and his negative-46 rush yards over expectation third-to-last. By Pro Football Focus’ grades, he ranks just 41st among 57 qualified running backs, with a pair of rookies — the New York Giants’ Cam Skattebo and the Washington Commanders’ Jacory Croskey-Merritt — leading the way. Jeanty’s stats through three games are worse than those of Trent Richardson in 2012, a fellow undersized lead rusher and noted draft bust.
Jeanty deserves some patience: by PFF grades, his first game of the season was his worst, and he performed a little bit better in subsequent games against the Los Angeles Chargers and the Washington Commanders. He also ranks a more respectable 32nd in yards after contact per attempt and leads the league with seven broken tackles. Plus, a three-game sample size is tiny; Jeanty has recorded better rushing grades this season than either Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry, and absolutely nobody is concerned about Barkley or Henry.
Still, his ceiling remains lower than either Barkley’s or Henry’s and, perhaps, lower than the ceiling that most ascribed to him before the season. One of his primary issues is the fact that he spends the ninth-most time behind the line of scrimmage, and the Raiders have been the league’s 12th-worst run blocking unit this season. Las Vegas has also used him primarily in obvious rushing situations: 42 of his 47 carries have come on first or second down, and 38 have come with at least seven yards to gain, with 23 on 1st and 10 alone. 34 have come under center, and 44 have come on non-RPO’s. New offensive coordinator Chip Kelly needs to get more creative with his play calls before Jeanty can truly thrive.
The flashes are absolutely there: whenever Jeanty gets a hole, he tends to take it, but the holes just haven’t been there often enough, especially since Jeanty prefers to run up the middle and the Raiders’ guards, Dylan Parham and Alex Cappa, have performed poorly as run-blockers. Three of his five 10-plus-yard runs have come outside the tackles, so he’ll have to learn to do that more moving forward. Parham, Jackson Powers-Johnson, and D.J. Glaze were better run-blockers last season, so their likely bounce-backs should help him, too. Jeanty could also help himself and the entire offense out by improving as a pass protector, and his exceptional balance should make him a plus there eventually.
Las Vegas has invested a lot in Jeanty, so he should continue to get enough opportunities to be fantasy-viable. Despite the Raiders operating the league’s fifth-most pass-friendly offense in the league so far, thanks to gunslinging quarterback Geno Smith, Jeanty still ranks 10th in the league in attempts. Las Vegas has no running back depth behind Jeanty, and handing it off to Zamir White or Dylan Laube would undoubtedly be worse for the team. The Raiders have also played a few opponents with solid front sevens. Let’s slow down and not overreact to a few quiet Jeanty performances just yet.
