It’s been a rough beginning of the year for quarterback injuries. No injury has had a bigger fantasy football impact than Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow’s turf toe injury; while it may sound benign, it may cost Burrow an entire season. That leaves Jake Browning as the starting QB in Cincinnati for the foreseeable future, and changes the fantasy outlook of many a Bengal. First and foremost are the questions about Cincy’s all-world WR1 Ja’Marr Chase.
Let’s break down how Burrow’s injury and Browning’s presence will affect Ja’Marr Chase for the remainder of the fantasy football season.
Year-to-Date Analysis
Week 1’s win over the Browns wasn’t a fun game for anyone on the Bengals offense. Against a surprisingly stout Cleveland defense, Chase was held to two catches for 26 yards on five targets. But things sure changed in Week 2, as Chase looked like his best self against the Jaguars. Despite Burrow’s early exit, Ja’Marr dominated in a big way, reeling in 14-of-16 targets for 165 yards and a score. Those are the alpha WR1 weeks that Chase drafters signed up for when taking him in the first round.
Week 3 is where the concern starts to set in. Facing a strong Minnesota Vikings defense, the Bengals were up against it early, and things only got worse from there. Cincinnati trailed 48-3 at one point and ultimately lost 48-10. Despite the oodles of pass-friendly game script, Browning couldn’t put up numbers, completing 19-of-27 passes for 140 yards. Chase was on the receiving end of five passes and 50 yards while losing a fumble.
So we have three weeks to look at: a bad week with Burrow against a great defense, an incredible week split between Burrow and Browning against a bad defense, and a mediocre week against a great defense in the first full Browning start. What do we make of this?
The Verdict
The quality of the defenses Chase faced in his dud weeks must be acknowledged. Cleveland threw Denzel Ward in his lap in Week 1, always a difficult corner to shake. Then, in Week 3, Isaiah Rodgers put up a 99.9 (!!!) PFF grade while seeing a lot of Ja’Marr on the outside. So don’t panic too much about the down weeks. Chase won’t always face these kinds of matchups.
But the concern over Browning cannot be denied. Chase’s route tree will be limited going forward to account for the dip in quarterback play, and a lot of his big-play potential has been taken away. Chase should maintain his WR1 status, but as more of a low-end WR1 play, not the WR1 overall we are accustomed to.
