This is the opener of a three-game series in Atlanta between the Braves and visiting Washington Nationals.
MacKenzie Gore is scheduled to pitch for Washington, while Chris Sale is scheduled to pitch for Atlanta.
Nationals at Braves prediction, preview
MacKenzie Gore has a 4.00 ERA through 157.2 innings. The FIP is lower at 3.64, though, as the BABIP is elevated at .322. The 27.3% strikeout rate is a career-high as well as the 13.4% swinging strike rate. The chase rate is a healthy 30.7%. The walk rate is still high at 9%, but it’s better than the 12% and 9.8% marks his first two seasons. Gore has allowed only 19 home runs but the Statcast numbers aren’t great with a 90.4 mph average exit velocity, 10.2% barrel rate and 44% hard hit rate.
14 of the 19 home runs have come off the bat of righties. The K-BB% is 22.5% against lefties and 16.8% against righties. The numbers are close at home and on the road with the main difference being the 1.29 HR/9 at home vs. 0.92 on the road.
In 29 starts, Gore has allowed more than three earned runs six times and gone at least six innings 16 times. He faced Atlanta in his last outing at home, going 5.1 innings, walked three and struck out five without allowing an earned run on two hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Orioles rank 23rd in strikeout rate, 16th in ISO, and 14th in wOBA.
Chris Sale is having a great season. Through 115 innings, the ERA of 2.35 is supported by the 2.49 FIP. The strikeout rate is 32.2% while the swinging strike rate is 13.6% and a 32.5% chase rate. The walk rate is only 6% and he’s allowed only nine home runs. The average exit velocity is only 86.9 mph, barrel rate is 6.5% and the hard hit rate is 34.1%.
Seven of the nine home runs have come off the bat of righties. Interestingly, the K-BB% is 4.6% higher against righties while the FIP is lower at 2.38 vs. 2.94 against lefties. Sale has been site neutral.
In 19 starts, Sale has allowed more than three earned runs once and gone at least six innings 11 times. He faced Washington in his last start on the road and went eight innings, did not walk a batter and struck out nine without allowing an earned run on three hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Nationals have the third-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the 29th-best ISO, and rank 30th in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Washington ranks 28th in FIP, while Atlanta ranks 25th.
Nationals at Braves pick, best bet
I have the utmost confidence in Sale stymying the Nationals offense. I definitely hold Gore in the same regard, but I respect what he’s done and don’t think he gets blown up. The bullpen does scare me, though.
