This is the opener of a three-game series in San Diego between the Padres and visiting Milwaukee Brewers.
Freddy Peralta is scheduled to pitch for Milwaukee, while Nick Pivetta is scheduled to pitch for San Diego.
Brewers at Padres prediction, preview
Freddy Peralta has a 2.65 ERA through 169.2 innings. The FIP is higher at 3.61, though, as the BABIP is only .241 while the strand rate is 85.2%. The strikeout rate is a robust 28.1% while the swinging strike rate is 12.7%. Control has never been a hallmark for Peralta and the walk rate is 9.4%. He has allowed 19 home runs and the Statcast numbers are good – 87.6 mph average exit velocity, 8.7% barrel rate and 33.2% hard hit rate.
12 of the 19 home runs have come off the bat of righties. 13 of the home runs have been served up on the road. The K-BB% is 23.8% against righties and 13.9% against lefties. The FIPs are similar due to the home run discrepancy. He’s been much better at home, as the K-BB% is 5.9% higher and the FIP is 2.74 vs. 4.58 on the road. Once again, the home run discrepancy.
In 31 starts, Peralta has allowed more than three earned runs four times while going at least six innings 13 times. This will be his first time facing San Diego this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Padres rank 28th in strikeout rate, 27th in ISO, and 16th in wOBA.
Nick Pivetta is having an out-of-body experience that has lasted 176 innings. The ERA is 2.81, a career-low by a wide margin. He had never been below 4 before. The FIP is higher at 3.49, though, as he’s experienced some good fortune with a .234 BABIP and 79.5% strand rate. The strikeout rate is 26.6% while the walk rate is 6.5%. The swinging strike rate is 10.6%. The average exit velocity is 90.3 mph, barrel rate is 11% and the hard hit rate is 44.7%. Pivetta has allowed 22 home runs.
15 of the 22 home runs have come off the bat of righties. 13 of the 22 home runs have been served up on the road. The numbers are similar against righties and lefties with the difference in the FIPs caused by the home run discrepancy. The K-BB% is 6.6% higher at home while the FIP is 2.84 vs. 4.29. The HR/9 is 1.49 on the road vs. 0.83 at home.
In 30 starts, Pivetta has allowed more than three earned runs five times and gone at least six innings 21 times. This will be his first time facing Milwaukee this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Brewers have the 24th-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the 17th-best ISO, and rank eighth in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Milwaukee ranks second in FIP, while San Diego ranks fifth.
Brewers at Padres pick, best bet
I like both pitchers and bullpens in this one, so expecting a good old-fashioned NL West pitching duel. Too bad Milwaukee is in the NL Central.
