The Kansas City Chiefs will travel to face the New York Giants tonight to close down the Week 3 Sunday slate. Both of these teams are looking to snap their 0-2 start to the season, but had very different outlooks coming into the year. Patrick Mahomes and company are looking to get back in the win column and ensure they remain right in the playoff mix as they seek to make it back to the Super Bowl for the sixth time in the past seven seasons. Only six teams in NFL history have dropped to 0-3 and still made the playoffs, and Kansas City will look to avoid this fate tonight.
Looking at the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chiefs enter as 6-point favorites and hold -305 odds on the moneyline. The Giants hold +235 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at O/U 44.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action outside of backing a side or total. This article will look at my top Patrick Mahomes prop bets ahead of tonight’s Week 3 Sunday Night Football matchup.
Best Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes Over 26.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Kansas City has had some significant trouble this season getting reliable production from its wide receiver play. Xavier Worthy continues to recover from injury, while Rashee Rice remains out until Week 7 while he serves his suspension. The hope is for this problem to fix itself over time, but Patrick Mahomes must continue to brace for battle with the players he has surrounding him for the time being.
One of the biggest side effects of the uneasy pass-catching group has been Mahomes’ willingness to lean on his legs more. Across the opening two games, the three-time Super Bowl champion leads the team with 123 rushing yards on the season. Mahomes tallied six rush attempts for 57 yards in Week 1 and followed this up with seven rush attempts for 66 yards last week. With his wide receivers struggling to create separation, Mahomes has successfully climbed the pocket and taken off for as much as he could get.
Kansas City will now prepare to face a Giants defense that has been the worst team in the league against the run this season. Through the opening two weeks, they have given up 355 yards on the ground, with 85 of these coming via the quarterback position. Based on the current limitations of this Chiefs offense, expect Mahomes to continue making use of his legs and taking what the defense gives him. Look for him to record over 26.5 rushing yards for the third straight game with this friendly matchup in mind.
Patrick Mahomes Anytime Touchdown (+380)
The damage that Mahomes brings on with his legs is not exclusive to just picking up yards. He has found the end zone in both games so far this season, and getting +380 odds of him doing it again is great value.
Mahomes has 16 rushing touchdowns throughout his career, with this season likely to be his career high in this category. The two rushing touchdowns he has on the season are already tied for the second-most in his career, with Mahomes never tallying more than four rushing touchdowns in a season. But the situation around Mahomes has shifted in a way that has impacted his outlook in the red zone. Travis Kelce is no longer the clear, reliable red zone weapon he has been throughout his career, as evidenced by his dropped pass that led to an interception last week, which cemented the loss to the Eagles. Kansas City also does not have a reliable running game, with no player outside of Mahomes having notched a rushing touchdown or more than 47 yards on the ground this year.
While Andy Reid is one of the more creative minds in football, Mahomes is at his best when rolling out and making plays on the fly. For years, this has led to some highlight reel ad libs with Kelce as the two played their backyard style of football. Kelce has one touchdown this year and will be in the mix, but I am buying into Mahomes’ increased usage of his legs as a trend. He will not be confused with Lamar Jackson, but he is a capable runner with an understanding of when there is a lane. Expect Reid to continue putting him in motion and having him make reads on the fly, and for Mahomes to reach paydirt for a third straight week against a Giants defense that has allowed four rushing touchdowns across the opening two weeks. Whether it be on a quarterback sneak or an option-type play, I like Mahomes’ chances of getting in the end zone on the ground for the third-straight game.
