Thirteen games of afternoon action are already in the books across the Week 3 NFL action. The New York Giants will host the Kansas City Chiefs this week to close down the Sunday slate. Both of these teams enter with an 0-2 record to start the season and have their hands on different versions of the panic button.
The Kansas City Chiefs have made it to three consecutive Super Bowls and in five of the past six seasons. It is an uncharacteristic 0-2 start and a hole they will look to dig themselves out of before it gets too deep. But there are some legitimate concerns on the field with the wide receiving group not meeting the NFL standard, and the defense not proving capable of carrying the team the way it did for stretches last year. It is a long season, but the whispers that this era may be over are getting louder, and the Chiefs could use a convincing performance tonight.
The New York Giants are coming off a 3-14 season last year and made plenty of offseason changes. Most notable is the outlook at the quarterback position with Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston and Jaxson Dart each new to the roster. Wilson continues to stand in as the starting quarterback, but the push for the 25th overall pick to get an opportunity is getting stronger. New York also brought Dart onto the field for a few plays last week, although he has yet to attempt a pass. This is a storyline to continue to keep an eye on as the season progresses and the level of desperation changes.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, the Chiefs enter as six-point favorites and hold -305 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Giants hold +245 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 44.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 3 Sunday Night Football matchup.
Chiefs at Giants Best Prop Bets
Russell Wilson Over 221.5 Passing Yards (-112)
While it can’t be the most comfortable feeling as a quarterback to be constantly looking over your shoulder at the promising rookie, Russell Wilson has looked like himself to start the year. He is not the dual-threat QB he entered the league as, but the arm talent still pops. After struggling in Week 1 against the Commanders, Wilson threw for 450 passing yards and three touchdowns last week against the Cowboys.
Kansas City does not have quite as porous a defense as Dallas, but it has struggled to start this year. Through the opening two weeks, it ranks 27th in defensive EPA per pass play, 15th in total passing yards allowed and 24th in net yards per pass attempt. Justin Herbert carved up the defense for 318 passing yards in the season opener. While Jalen Hurts only threw for 101 yards against the Chiefs last week, it felt like it had more to do with the Eagles’ play calling and game script than a direct improvement of the Chiefs’ defense.
Wilson will be willing to let it fly as often as possible with Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson headlining the weapons around him. He averaged 225.9 passing yards per game last season with the Steelers and is currently leading the NFL with an average of 309.0 passing yards per game. Count on New York allowing him to take some downfield shots and for the deep passing game to be a staple of Wilson’s pass selection. Expect him to throw for over 221.5 passing yards for the second straight game as he fights to extend his time as the starting quarterback.
Patrick Mahomes Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
The lack of reliable wide receiver production has disrupted the Chiefs’ offense in a major way and is a driving reason why the team is in a 0-2 hole. While this will get better when Rashee Rice returns from his suspension in Week 7 and Xavier Worthy is hopeful to be back next week, neither fixes the problem for this week’s Sunday night matchup. One side effect of the lack of wide receiver production has been Patrick Mahomes’ willingness to use his legs more to pick up yards.
Through the opening two weeks, Mahomes is the Chiefs’ leading rusher with 123 yards tallied on just 13 carries. The three-time Super Bowl champion rushed six times for 57 yards in Week 1 and seven times for 66 yards last week while finding the end zone in both games. With wide receivers struggling to create separation, Mahomes has been willing to climb the pocket and take off for as much as he can get.
The Chiefs’ star will now face off with a Giants defense that ranks as the worst in the league against the run. They have given up 355 yards on the ground across the first two games, with quarterbacks being responsible for 85 of these yards. Based on the current limitations in the passing game, expect the Chiefs to need Mahomes to continue to lean on his legs. The 27.5-rushing yard line is too low based on the rate at which he is taking off and the struggles of the Giants’ defense. Count on him exceeding this total for the third straight week to start this season.
Travis Kelce Longest Receptions Over 18.5 Yards (-115)
The days of Travis Kelce being one of the clear-cut best tight ends in the NFL may officially be behind us. The 35-year-old tallied a career-low 823 receiving yards last year and has just six receptions for 108 yards and a touchdown to start this season.
However, Kansas City needs Kelce to provide some sort of pulse to the passing game if this offense is to run effectively. This is a friendly matchup with the Giants looking vulnerable against tight ends. Zach Ertz tallied three receptions, including an 11-yard touchdown, in Week 1, and Jake Ferguson broke free for a career-high nine receptions for 78 yards last week. Kelce should have no problem finding some vulnerable areas in the Giants’ coverage, just as was the case for tight ends the past two weeks.
Rather than back his reception or yardage prop, I am taking Kelce to record a longer reception of over 18.5 yards. He tallied a longest reception of 37 and 23 yards across his opening two games this year. The future Hall-of-Famer has beaten his longest reception prop in 40 of his last 59 games across the regular season and playoffs. Kelce may not be used at the regular rate we are accustomed to seeing, but count on there being at least one big play available for him to capitalize on.
