Next Sunday is the grand finale of the Major League Baseball regular season, but this Sunday has a nice schedule of contests as well, with several important series wrapping up and setting up the final sprint to the finish. Four games start after 4:00 p.m. ET or later, and those four games have some nice home run props to consider. Let’s try to finish off our Sunday of baseball action with some big flies by playing these home run props Sunday afternoon. After looking at the matchups, game environments, odds and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props for later this Sunday afternoon and evening come from Mookie Betts, Josh Naylor, and Trevor Story.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and aim for the fences with these home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators that can point us in the right direction, home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green on a given night.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props on Sunday.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Mookie Betts to record 1+ home runs (+485)
Betts and the Dodgers have won four straight and can finish out a four-game sweep of their rivals on Sunday. Betts homered earlier in the series to get to 20 dingers on the year.
Betts had a long home run drought in the middle of the season, but has bounced back with nine homers in his last 39 games. He is hitting .325 with a .400 wOBA over that stretch, along with a 44.4% hard-hit rate.
While his season numbers are still below his lofty standards, he’s available at a bargain rate in his home run props. He has 15 of his 20 homers at Dodger Stadium and 13 of them against righties.
In Sunday afternoon’s matchup, he’ll face Giants’ righty Trevor McDonald, who will be making his first MLB start after giving up two runs in two innings in his season debut earlier this month. In Triple-A this season, he went 9-9 with a 5.31 ERA and 5.53 FIP. He gave up 22 homers in his 29 games this year.
Betts brings nice upside against McDonald and the Giants as the Dodgers continue to push back to the playoffs.
Josh Naylor to record 1+ home runs (+492)
Naylor and the Mariners are looking to close out a huge sweep of the Astros in Houston. They’re the standard Sunday Night Baseball matchup with the Red Sox-Rays matchup added as a bonus due to the Rays playing at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
Naylor and the Mariners started this series in a tie with Houston but now lead the AL West by two games.
Naylor has been a big pickup for the Mariners, hitting .282 with nine homers, 17 stolen bases (for real), and a .344 wOBA in his 49 games with the M’s. He has a 43.5% hard-hit rate during that span. In his last seven games, he has 10 hard-hit batted-ball events and is hitting .407 (11-for-27) with this home run from Friday:
He’ll be facing Jason Alexander of the Astros on Sunday night, and on the year, Alexander has allowed 12 home runs in 16 games (11 starts). Eight of those homers have come in his 34 2/3 innings at home, and he has a 4.93 home ERA compared to a much more effective 3.19 road ERA.
Lefties like Naylor have done most of the damage against Alexander this year, with seven of those 12 homers along with a .347 wOBA ovarell and a .413 wOBA at Daikin Park.
Trevor Story to record 1+ home runs (+511)
At one point this season, some Red Sox fans were calling for Story to be released since he was struggling so badly and “taking playing time” from the younger options at the position. Thankfully, the Red Sox leadership had more sense than the throngs on X and stuck with the veteran, who has become one of the team’s best contributors as they make a push for the AL Wild Card.
Story has 25 homers on the year and is hitting .265 with a .325 wOBA. He has seven homers and a .368 wOBA in his last 32 games. He hit his most recent homer on Thursday at Fenway.
Of his 25 homers on the year, he hit 15 on the road and 18 against righties, so a road matchup with Joe Boyle in Tampa should set up well for him Sunday Night.
Boyle is coming off his best outing of the season, but he hasn’t been great all year long. He held the Blue Jays to three hits and no runs last Monday, but before that, he gave up 16 runs in just 9 1/3 innings over his previous three starts. This season, he has a 4.64 ERA and 4.60 FIP, and he has allowed five homers in his last six games since returning to the rotation.
Righties like Story have hit half of the home runs against him in fewer than half the plate appearances against him. The splits aren’t drastic, for sure, but I think Story’s home run props come at a great value given how solid he has been lately for the Sox.
