The Los Angeles Chargers have been arguably the most impressive team in the NFL out of the gate this season. They are off to a 2-0 start, which includes victories over the Chiefs and Raiders, and now have a chance to earn a third consecutive divisional win against the Broncos in Week 3. Denver enters with a 1-1 record. It took down the Tennessee Titans in the opening week but is looking to bounce back from a loss to the Colts last week.
Looking at the odds for this week’s AFC West clash, the Chargers are favored by 2.5 points and hold -155 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Broncos hold +130 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 45.5.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 3 Chargers vs. Broncos matchup.
Chargers vs. Broncos Best Prop Bets
Justin Herbert Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-109)
Justin Herbert is off to as great a start to a season as anyone could hope. He has completed 72.1% of his pass attempts for 560 passing yards, five touchdowns, and has not thrown an interception. Herbert tallied three passing touchdowns against the Chiefs and two against the Raiders. Los Angeles has abandoned its run-oriented offense and has given the keys to the team completely to Herbert. This makes it difficult to bet against the 27-year-old based on how he has played.
But the Denver defense is no joke and has had success against Herbert in the past. In his career, Herbert has 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions across his nine matchups with the Broncos. After leading the league in sacks and allowing the third-fewest points last season, the Broncos have given up just one passing touchdown across their first two games.
On the other side of the conversation, Los Angeles has not had a rushing touchdown yet this season, after leading the league in that category last year. This feels like a case where Herbert has played a shade above his head, and the game script has allowed him to put up some impressive statistical outputs to start the year. Expect a bit of regression as the Chargers take on one of the best defenses in the NFL, and for the running game to begin being leaned on more regularly. At this current pace, it would take four games for an opposing quarterback to throw two passing touchdowns against Denver. Expect them to be prepared for this familiar opponent and to limit Herbert to under 1.5 passing touchdowns in this Week 3 matchup.
Bo Nix Over 0.5 Interceptions (-138)
On the other side of the quarterback matchup, Bo Nix has not gotten off to the start he hoped for this season. The second-year quarterback has completed 67.1% of his pass attempts for just 382 yards, four touchdowns, three interceptions, and one fumble across the first two games. Nix threw 12 interceptions as a rookie, and his decision-making has been even more concerning to start this season. Ball security issues have to be the starting point of the conversation regarding how he has played this year, which is a major concern.
The Chargers’ defense must have been licking their chops in the film room this week while preparing for this matchup. They had three interceptions last week against the Raiders and did an excellent job being opportunistic when Geno Smith put the ball in harm’s way. Los Angeles also ranked eighth in the league in interceptions last year, with 15 on the season.
Nix threw an interception in his first matchup with the Broncos last year, and I’m expecting the same this season. His gunslinger mentality was admirable when it worked, but Nix needs to make real progress in limiting risk, and that hasn’t been evident this year. It’s easier said than done to fix this midseason. Count on the Chargers to take advantage of these opportunities and for Nix’s turnover problems to continue.
Omarion Hampton Under 54.5 Rushing & Recieving Yards (-113)
There was plenty of buzz entering the season around rookie running back Omarion Hampton after the Chargers selected the North Carolina product with the 22nd pick in this year’s NFL Draft. Coming off 3,164 rushing yards and 30 touchdowns over his last two college seasons, there are hopes he can develop into the bell cow back for this Los Angeles offense. But if the first two weeks are any indication, the Chargers are going to be patient in their approach.
Hampton received 15 carries for 48 yards in the opening week, while adding a pair of receptions for 13 yards. He then saw his workload scaled back last week, taking just eight carries for 24 yards and adding one reception for one yard. Even more concerning, he logged just 62.1% of the snaps in Week 2 after seeing 80% in Week 1. Typically, the process for integrating a rookie into the offense involves leaning on a veteran early in the season before gradually increasing the rookie’s role. However, Najee Harris’ offseason fireworks incident complicated this outlook, with the veteran unable to be a full participant in training camp. After getting just one carry in Week 1, Harris had eight carries for 28 yards last week.
Denver limited the Titans to just 71 rushing yards as a team in Week 1. Jonathan Taylor gashed them for 165 yards in Week 2, but 68 of those came on one run, and Taylor should be viewed in a different light compared to the Chargers’ current backs. Between Denver’s strong defense, Hampton’s inefficiency, and Najee Harris cutting into his workload, expectations should be limited for the rookie back. Count on Hampton being held to under 54.5 rushing and receiving yards for the second straight game, and in his first taste of this divisional rivalry.
