In Week 4 of the college football season, the No. 8 Texas Longhorns (2-1) host the Sam Houston Bearkats (0-3) for a matchup between in-state teams with entirely different outlooks for the remainder of the year. Against an easier opponent, Arch Manning sees the opportunity to hone his craft and get some more reps before heading into an upcoming SEC schedule. Will the Longhorns dominate, or will Sam Houston manage to give them a run for their money?
Let’s dive into the details with a Texas vs. Sam Houston prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas vs. Sam Houston prediction, preview
Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns haven’t yet seen the results they hoped for prior to the season after starting the year with a loss to Ohio State before a couple of wins over San Jose State and UTEP, the latter of which put up a surprising fight. While Texas holds a No. 8 ranking in the latest AP Poll, there are noticeable struggles for this team thus far. None are more of a concern than the situation with quarterback Arch Manning, who entered the year with high expectations as a Heisman Trophy favorite but has completed just 55.3% of his passes for 579 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions. The good news is that the Longhorns have plenty of talent surrounding their young cornerstone such as halfback CJ Baxter, wideouts Parker Livingstone and Ryan Wingo, plus tight end Jack Endries. Still, Manning’s play does raise questions about whether this team can truly compete.
The offense sits tied for 76th in the nation in yards per game at 382.7 and 91st in scoring average with just 24 points per game. Granted one contest came against the reigning champions, but things must begin to improve on that end. The other side of the ball does look quite strong with a defense allowing just 243.7 yards per game and four offensive touchdowns through three weeks. Thankfully, a top-12 rush defense and top-36 pass defense can help insulate the offense while things continue to gel.
Sam Houston Bearkats
The Bearkats went 10-3 overall last season during their second year at the FBS level. Unfortunately for this team, it’s not 2024 anymore and they’ve now started 0-3 with losses to Western Kentucky, UNLV and Hawaii already. New head coach Phil Longo, now in his second stint with the team after serving as offensive coordinator from 2014-16, has his work cut out for him to remain competitive.
Thankfully, starting quarterback Hunter Watson is cleared to return from injury in this contest and should step under center once again. While his 57.7% completion percentage and 310 yards with no touchdowns and one interception don’t exactly spark confidence, it’s important to note he brings experience after leading this team to their quality 2024. Thus far, he’s also the team’s leading rusher with 108 yards and two scores on the ground, while running back Elijah Green paces the Bearkats in the receiving game with 11 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown. So far, SHSU sits tied for 102nd with 21.7 points per game and 113th in total offense with just 317.3 yards per contest. The bump with Watson back should help, but the defense will almost certainly struggle against Texas. The Bearkats are bottom-five in the country with 38.67 points allowed per game while also sitting 11th-worst with 442.3 yards allowed on average.
Texas vs. Sam Houston pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Texas as a -39.5 favorite at home on Saturday. The total for this game sits at 50.5 combined points.
There’s a tiny, crazy little part of me that wants to take Sam Houston to cover in this contest. It’s not that I think they’re a good team — neither the stats nor eye test actually indicate such a development. However, the Texas offense has looked so stagnant at times compared to what it probably should produce on a weekly basis. UTEP hung in there with the Longhorns last week, as did SJSU during the first half a couple of weeks ago. Could the Bearkats make magic happen on Saturday in Austin?
As much as I want to say yes, the reality is that they probably get absolutely crushed by the Longhorns. However, I do still feel that 39.5-point spread remains a little too long given what we’ve seen from Texas so far. Despite all the talent and some of the best trench play in college football, Arch’s inconsistency has kept the Longhorns from truly hitting their stride. They haven’t scored 40 points in a game yet, much less scored 40 more than an opponent to cover. While Sam Houston might be the worst opponent on the schedule, I do think they can stay within 39 points of Texas and cover as long as Steve Sarkisian’s program still needs to work out some kinks in the offense on Saturday. If the Bearkats manage to reach the end zone just one, this one may just hit.
