At 0-2, #24 Notre Dame has not gotten off to a strong start this season. Still, one-possession losses to Texas A&M and Miami haven’t killed the Irish’s dreams of a postseason berth. A loss to Purdue, however? That would end any CFP hopes for Marcus Freeman’s crew. Can the Boilermakers pull off the upset against their in-state rivals? Below is my prediction and pick for College Football Week 4’s game between the Purdue Boilermakers and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Notre Dame enters this contest as 25.5-point favorites (-112) over Purdue, with the over/under set at 53.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Purdue vs. Notre Dame prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, two straight losses have soured the mood in South Bend. If not for a misplaced extra point, there’s a good chance Notre Dame would have earned an overtime win over A&M. Regardless, it’s an uphill battle whenever your defense surrenders 41 points. The upside from Week 3? Freshman quarterback CJ Carr looked far more comfortable in the pocket. Against the Aggies, he threw for 293 yards and a touchdown (one interception). In the running game, superstar Jeremiyah Love gained 147 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns.
That level of offensive production is key to Notre Dame’s success going forward. Clearly, this defense is not on par with what fans have come to expect in recent years. More carries for Love, following a light workload vs. Miami, was also a welcome sight. It should be more of the same on Saturday afternoon. Last season, the Boilermakers surrendered 200.0 rushing yards per game, worst in the Big Ten. Granted, new head coach Barry Odom has made a strong effort to improve Purdue’s defense. Still, this group allowed 4.6 yards per carry to USC in Week 3.
If the Boilermakers are going to make this a game, it’ll take a standout performance from quarterback Ryan Browne. The sophomore’s 2025 campaign has been a bit of a mixed bag so far. He’s thrown for 786 passing yards and five touchdowns while finding the end zone twice as a rusher. However, Browne has already coughed up four interceptions. Ideally, Purdue would like to avoid having its QB throw too many passes. Therefore, Odom will look to establish the run game with senior Devin Mockobee. The 22-year-old leads the Big Ten with 58 total carries through three games.
Purdue vs. Notre Dame pick, best bet
Ideally for the Boilermakers, an early score or two keeps their offense game plan from becoming too pass-heavy. Unfortunately for the visitors, everything they are attempting to do on offense, Notre Dame does better. Love’s explosiveness makes him a matchup nightmare for this lackluster run defense. With all eyes on the backfield, Carr should also have ample opportunity to pick up some yards.
On the other side of the ball, Browne will have to go up against a talented, albeit underperforming, secondary. That could lead to a few costly turnovers. When these teams met last season, the Irish laid down the hammer en route to a 66-7 victory. This is an improved Purdue roster, but not enough has changed to make me think this will be close.
