As expected, the Minnesota Lynx pulled through in their first-round series against the Golden State Valkyries. The WNBA’s best team all season long, their place in the semifinals was hardly in doubt. But the Phoenix Mercury had to punch their way into the next round, winning a dramatic first-round series against the defending champion New York Liberty.
Now the two teams face off with a spot in the WNBA Finals on the line. The Lynx are 7.5-point favorites at home and hold -325 odds on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mercury, as road underdogs, are +260 on the moneyline. The total is set at 158.5 points. Letโs take a look at the best bets and predictions for this MercuryโLynx matchup.
Mercury vs. Lynx prediction, pick
During the regular season, Minnesota won three of the four matchups with Phoenix. However, two of those came in the first ten games, when the Mercury were still missing Kahleah Copper and trying to gel as a team. As Phoenix got hot down the stretch, the two teams split their last two meetings. Fresh off a series against the Liberty that was big for their confidence, there’s reason to believe the Mercury could be a real challenge to Minnesota’s dominance.
Alyssa Thomas is playing exceptional basketball, racking up another playoff triple-double in their decisive Game 3 win. They got Good Satou in Game 3 as well, and they have the look of a ferocious competitor. However, we can’t overlook how good the Lynx are. Napheesa Collier scored 44 points in their two-game sweep of the Valkyries, a very strong defensive team. Her offensive sidekick, Kayla McBride, scored 35 total points. Impressively, both players shot over 60% from the floor.
I expect the Mercury to keep this game competitive down to the end. But picking against the Minnesota Lynx feels like trying to stop a moving train.
