The NFL season has already reached Week 3 as we begin to see teams shaping up into who they’ll be over the course of the year. On Sunday, the New England Patriots (1-1) host the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) for a meeting between a young team on the upswing with Drake Maye and an experienced roster looking to make a deep playoff run in the twilight of Aaron Rodgers’ career.
Get ready for this Week 3 matchup with a Patriots vs. Steelers prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Patriots vs. Steelers prediction, preview
New England Patriots
The Mike Vrabel era in New England got off to an unceremonious start with a Week 1 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, but the former Coach of the Year saw his team bounce back last Sunday with a victory over the Miami Dolphins. With the first win of his Patriots tenure now out of the way, a little bit of pressure likely melts off his shoulders as the team begins to settle in.
New England ranks in the NFL’s top half with 23 points and 334.5 yards per game, encouraging signs given the new staff’s overhaul to offensive systems. With a 61% pass rate, the Patriots are airing the ball out through two weeks with a +4.9% PROE, a surprising mark for a Vrabel-led team since he traditionally loves to run the ball. After a shaky Week 1, Drake Maye looks quite good with a 71% completion rate and three touchdowns to one interception, plus 42 yards and a score on the ground. The air attack averages 243.5 yards per game, but Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson should see ample work in this game against an underperforming Steelers run defense.
The defense likely needs some tuning up, though. They’ve allowed an average of 373.5 yards through the first two games, a bottom-10 mark, and a poor pass defense gives up a league-worst 315 yards in the absence of Christian Gonzalez. The defensive back will miss Week 3’s tilt as well, so expect Rodgers to take advantage of that injury.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The visiting Steelers started their season with hard-fought win over the New York Jets, but Week 2 saw them lose to the Seattle Seahawks. The results of those games are something of a mixed bag so far, but the good news is that it’s still early in the campaign with time to iron out the details.
Getting a read on this Pittsburgh offense feels a little difficult. The unit hung 34 points on the Jets in Week 1 but then scored just 17 last week, so points aren’t exactly the problem with 25.5 per game (a top-10 mark). The issue is actually moving the ball since the Steelers are totaling just 269 yards per contest with 4.8 yards/play, 25th among all teams. Shockingly, they’ve thrown the ball 65% of the time but Rodgers came back to earth with just 203 yards, one touchdown and two picks against the Seahawks following a masterful four-score performance in Week 1. He’s spread the ball around and offseason acquisition DK Metcalf hasn’t yet popped as the alpha with just seven catches for 103 yards and a score, and the run game averages only 62.5 yards per contest on a paltry 3.0 YPC.
Pittsburgh’s defense doesn’t look the part of the unit which dominated opposing offenses over the last several years. They’ve allowed 31.5 points and 394.5 yards on average, conceding 245 passing yards and 149.5 rushing yards per outing. All of those statistics fall 25th in the NFL or worse, so there’s work to be done on defense. It’s still early, but perhaps trading Minkah Fitzpatrick away wasn’t the best idea after all.
Patriots vs. Steelers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Steelers as narrow 1.5-point favorites with -130 odds on the Moneyline. The Patriots are listed at +110 odds to win outright with the game total set at 44.5 combined points.
Most people will probably see the Steelers favored and gravitate toward them based on reputation, but such a decision might be a mistake. This Patriots team deploys a sneaky good offense with a dual-threat quarterback and a couple of halfbacks who can do damage both on the ground and through the air. With the Pittsburgh defense looking vulnerable to start the season, this matchup may not end up as close as the odds suggest. While I do worry about the matchup with Metcalf since Gonzalez won’t suit up for New England, the word “overrated” comes to mind surrounding this iteration of the Steelers with Rodgers at the helm. I don’t believe this offense is a good one (yet), and although they see the benefit of the doubt after facing a great Seattle defense last week, they simply aren’t moving the ball well enough to pencil them in as a clear favorite.
Pittsburgh ranks 25th in yards per play, 28th in first downs per game and 23rd in third-down conversion percentage. Those aren’t encouraging signs whatsoever. They’ve been efficient at converting in the red zone so far, but an 80% rate there will eventually even out as well. With an offense overperforming in the scoring column and a very poor defense, the Patriots can let their playmakers do damage in this one and may surprise some people on Sunday with a win. I quite like taking them at plus odds to advance to 2-1 and boost Vrabel’s candidacy for Coach of the Year in the process.
