If I told you before this season that the Indiana Fever and Las Vegas Aces would be squaring off in the WNBA Semifinals, you wouldn’t be that shocked. But the way they got here has been stunning.
Indiana has weathered the storm of Caitlin Clark’s injury troubles to make the postseason. On the back of an incredible season from Kelsey Mitchell, the Fever managed to secure the sixth seed in the WNBA playoffs. Most people, myself included, wrote them off in a difficult matchup against the Atlanta Dream. But the Fever once again prevailed, coming back to win the last two games, including a nail-biter of a Game 3.
Las Vegas didn’t have an easy road either. After struggling for the majority of the season, the Aces ripped off a nearly impossible 16-game winning streak to close the regular season, going from the playoff bubble to the second overall seed. They were rewarded with a tough matchup against the Seattle Storm, one that also came down to the wire in Game 3 before Vegas prevailed.
Now the two teams face off with a spot in the WNBA Finals on the line. The Aces are nine-point favorites at home and hold -455 odds on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Fever, as road underdogs, are +350 on the moneyline. The total is set at 163.5 points. Let’s take a look at the best bets and predictions for this Aces–Fever matchup.
Aces vs. Fever prediction, pick
The Aces lost the regular-season series against the Fever, 2–1. However, none of those games came during their incredible 16-game win streak. It truly feels like two different teams before and after the streak began. So, in my mind, I’m throwing out those first three games.
It took an incredible effort from Indiana’s top players to pull through in the first round. Kelsey Mitchell scored 23.3 PPG in the series, while Aliyah Boston played an outstanding all-around game, averaging 12.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per contest. But their work is cut out for them trying to contain A’ja Wilson and the Aces.
Wilson, the Defensive Player of the Year and presumed MVP, averaged 29.3 points per game in the first round. That includes a 38-point outburst in the decisive Game 3, and the Aces needed every bit of it. They also got key contributions from Jackie Young, while Chelsea Gray kept the offense organized. It’s going to be a difficult formula for the Fever to solve.
Las Vegas will come out swinging in this one to set the tone. It may end up being a closer series than expected, but A’ja and company will show the Fever what they’re up against.
