With just eight days left in the MLB regular season, no series holds more weight than this one between the Houston Astros (84-70) and Seattle Mariners (85-69). Whoever wins this set likely takes the AL West division title while the other hopes to stay afloat as a Wild Card team. After Seattle took game one of the series last night, Houston must bounce back this evening or else face a much more precarious position in the postseason race.
Here’s an Astros vs. Mariners prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s contest.
Astros vs. Mariners prediction, preview
The Astros have suffered through some very poor injury luck this season, so it’s a testament to the job of manager Joe Espada that they’re even still in the running for an AL West title. Losing Yordan Alvarez to the 10-day IL with an ankle issue a few days ago raises some serious concerns, especially with the timing of his freak injury while crossing home plate, but Isaac Paredes did make an improbable return to the lineup last night after a very short rehab process for a torn hamstring.
Houston averages 4.71 runs per game across 17 September contests, batting just .244 as a team with a .696 OPS. The return of Paredes does help the pop in the bats, but losing Alvarez hurts as the team’s ISO sits at just .144 (seventh-worst) with just 18 homers this month. The lineup also posts just a 0.32 BB/K as well, also a bottom-six mark. The pitching staff’s 3.90 ERA sits just outside the top-10 marks, but they’ve outperformed an ugly 4.55 FIP so there’s slight cause for concern there. A 1.23 WHIP is respectable though.
For the Mariners, life is good to say the least. Seattle sits 9-1 across their last 10 games and have caught fire at the most opportunistic time possible. With 5.94 runs per game in September, they’re tied with the Philadelphia Phillies as the most productive offense in the sport right now. The lineup hits .265 this month with a .835 OPS, the sixth and second-best marks of any team. Their 32 homers lead the majors with a .231 ISO, and an 0.43 BB/K is also among the 10 highest marks in that category. Interesting enough though, a .291 BABIP actually ranks 17th overall.
As for the pitching staff, a 3.31 ERA sits second-best of any team while a 1.08 WHIP falls third. The 3.05 FIP is also one of the best marks in baseball, as is a 27.7% K% that ranks third while producing a 4.7% BB%, the lowest of any staff. Make no mistake, the Mariners’ arms can win games too even when the offense struggles.
Astros vs. Mariners pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists both the Mariners and Astros with -110 odds to win on the Moneyline, so this game looks about as close as it gets. Seattle’s favored on the -1.5 run line with the total set at an even eight runs.
For Houston tonight, Framber Valdez (3.59 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 173 SO in 180.1 IP) gets the start amid a cold stretch. While one of the best pitchers of the last couple seasons, the lefty’s ERA sits at 6.25 over his last seven outings with a 1.56 WHIP and just 29 strikeouts in 40.1 innings. Seattle starts right-hander George Kirby (4.46 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 120 in 115.0 IP), a veteran they trust in this crucial spot. He’s also pitched somewhat poorly lately with a 5.35 ERA and 1.43 HIP over his last 37 innings of work.
Were this even a month ago, it’d feel a lot easier to trust Valdez in this spot. However, the star seems to be melting down during this late-season stretch and faces a very talented Mariners lineup this evening that’s hitting like one of the best units in baseball. After surrendering 14 earned runs across his three starts in September, Seattle can absolutely take advantage of his poor form tonight in hitter-friendly Daikin Park. Their bats are producing far more consistent results than the Astros’ are, and while Kirby seems a little bit hot-and-cold (five earned runs in his last two starts but seven in the one before that), he’s positioned to rise to the occasion here.
All things considered, I feel inclined to take the Mariners on the Moneyline this evening at -110 odds. Their recent form is just too difficult to pass up, especially with the Astros a little bit vulnerable on a night-to-night basis, particularly with Alvarez out.
Best bet: SEA Mariners ML (-110)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
