Tonight’s island game in the late-night slate sees the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (3-1) host the Fresno State Bulldogs (3-1) at midnight EST. This Mountain West matchup looks like a fun one between two teams with entirely different styles of offense, so fans and bettors who brave the late start are in for a treat. After all, sleep is for the weak, right?
Here’s a Hawaii vs. Fresno State prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 4 CFB action.
Hawaii vs. Fresno State prediction, preview
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Through the first few weeks of the season, both of these teams enter with a 3-1 record. For Hawaii, the Rainbow Warriors have wins over Stanford, Sam Houston and an FCS program, Portland State. The long loss came 40-6 to Arizona, but Hawaii has shown some serious promise while weathering an injury to quarterback Micah Alejado, who returns today. The program averages just 22.3 points with 342.5 yards per game, and they should see a bump to both with their starter back under center. The Rainbow Warriors throw the ball a ton with 175 pass attempts to just 116 rushes, and Pofele Ashlock has emerged as a standout wideout with 26 receptions for 235 yards and three touchdowns. The run game averages just 3.4 yards per attempt and hasn’t yet scored a touchdown, but it makes more sense for Hawaii to continue attacking through the air against a Fresno State secondary that ranks 84th in the nation with 240.7 passing yards allowed per game.
Fresno State Bulldogs
On the flip side, Fresno State lost in Week 0 to Kansas but beat Georgia Southern, Oregon State and Southern University in the three weeks since. With two of those wins coming over FCS opponents, it’s a little difficult to judge the quality of this Bulldogs team. However, they’re scoring 35.3 points per game with 392.0 yards on average, so there’s much to like about the offense thus far.Fresno State pounds the rock with 143 rush attempts to just 104 passes, and the ground game dominates with 202.5 yards per game and 12 touchdowns. The Bulldogs also average an impressive 5.7 yards per carry, behind standouts Bryson Donelson (50 CAR, 325 YDS, 2 TD) and Rayshon Luke (36 CAR, 224 YDS, 5 TD). In similar fashion to Hawaii attacking a weakness, Fresno State will seek to exploit a defense that ranks 74th nation-wide with 149.7 rushing yards allowed per contest.
Hawaii vs. Fresno State pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Fresno State enters as three-point favorites with -148 odds on the Moneyline. Hawaii holds +124 odds to win outright with the game total set at 46.5.
The chess match between these sides should prove very interesting. On one hand, the Rainbow Warriors can throw the ball but and face a defense which struggles against the pass. In that same vein, the Bulldogs excel on the ground and enter a matchup against a vulnerable run defense. The game plan tonight feels relatively obvious for both sides, but who should come out on top between the two?
That’s a very difficult call. It feels like Fresno State can play their preferred game and try to dominate the ground in this one while controlling the clock. In that sense, Hawaii may see fewer possessions than usual and end up with the pressure of needing to make the most of every single opportunity. However, the Rainbow Warriors’ passing attack does see a positive matchup tonight and the benefit of their starting quarterback re-entering the fold. The safe pick here would be to take an alternate spread of Hawaii +4.5 to possibly sneak a cover by a field goal, but the -156 odds there aren’t providing a ton of value.
With that in mind, I’ll personally be targeting Fresno State -3 instead under the assumption that their talented halfback duo dominates tonight to help the Bulldogs hold the lead throughout the night. If they milk the game clock enough, there’s plenty of potential for this program to remain ahead for most of the contest and force Hawaii to play catch-up, in which case I’m comfortable taking the visitors to cover. The value there should pay off assuming the game script plays out how head coach Matt Entz likely planned it out.
