Miami is hosting Florida on Saturday night of Week 4. The game will take place at 7:30 p.m. ET in Miami Gardens, Florida.
The Hurricanes are 9.5-point home favorites in this game on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 51.5 points. This is a preview, prediction and pick for this Florida vs. Miami non-conference rivalry matchup.
Florida vs. Miami prediction, preview
Florida Preview
It has been another disastrous start to a season for Billy Napier and the Florida Gators. Napier went 6-6 in his first season, followed by a 5-7 season in 2023. After starting last season with a 4-5 record, Napier’s seat could not have been hotter. However, freshman quarterback DJ Lagway came in and won the final three games of the regular season, plus a bowl game, to make it an eight-win campaign for Napier. The promise of DJ Lagway caused Florida to stick with Napier as their head coach.
Things couldn’t be going worse to start 2025, though, as Florida comes into this game with a 1-2 record after losses to LSU and South Florida. They stare down one of the hardest schedules in college football going forward, and things could go from bad to worse for the Gators if Lagway’s play doesn’t improve. Lagway saved Napier’s job at the end of last season, but could cost him his job this season. Lagway threw five interceptions in the loss to LSU, and the Gators still only lost by ten points. The Florida defense is the real deal, but Lagway and Napier’s offense can’t match their quality.
Miami Preview
On the other side, it has been a dream start to the year for Miami. The Hurricanes missed out on the College Football Playoff in devastating fashion last season. Their Heisman finalist quarterback Cam Ward was then the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. It seemed as if Miami had blown its chance of making a run at a national title with such an incredible quarterback. However, they made some moves to improve on the defensive side of the ball, the unit that cost them multiple games last season. They also went out and got quarterback Carson Beck from Georgia. This was a bit of a controversial move. Beck has incredible talent, but did not live up to expectations last season at Georgia, and faced some criticism for his attitude and mindset on top of his play.
This season, Beck has been the guy that many in Athens thought he could be. At DraftKings Sportsbook, Beck has the second-best odds of winning the Heisman Trophy this season. He has led Miami to a 3-0 start, including a big win over Notre Dame. With the struggles going on at Clemson, Miami is now the favorite to win the ACC and make the College Football Playoff. This will be a big test for Miami against its in-state rivals, but the hype will really start to build if it can take care of business here.
Florida vs. Miami pick, best bet
Carson Beck has stolen the headlines for the Miami Hurricanes so far this season, deservedly so, because he has been fantastic. However, the defense has led the way for Miami. They rank eighth in the nation in defensive EPA/rush and ninth in defensive rushing success rate. Notre Dame has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation, and Miami held them to under 100 yards as a team. South Florida quarterback Byrum Brown ran all over Florida in the Bulls’ upset win, going for 66 yards on the ground. He had two rushing yards against Miami. The Hurricanes should shut down the Florida offense in this game, forcing DJ Lagway to try to beat them by throwing down the field.
The Florida defense deserves a lot of credit. They continued to play hard and fight to stay in the LSU game, despite Lagway’s five interceptions. In general, the Florida Gators continue to play hard for Billy Napier. This game against Miami is the last chance for Florida to salvage their season. The defense should hang tough as long as they can. Florida is one of the few run defenses better than Miami’s, ranking third in the nation in EPA/rush. There could be a conservative, sluggish start to the game, before both coaches decide they need to just let it rip with their quarterbacks if they want to win. That is why my best bet for this game is the first half under 24.5 points.
