Week 3 of the NFL season is underway with the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins kicking things off on Thursday night. The New England Patriots will host the Pittsburgh Steelers as part of the 13-game Sunday afternoon slate. Both of these teams hold a 1-1 record on the year, and each is looking to make a push for the playoffs this season. They hold very different timelines as organizations, but have similar goals for this year.
Looking at the odds for this week’s matchup, the Steelers are favored by 1.5 points and hold -130 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Patriots hold +110 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 44.5.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 3 Steelers vs. Patriots matchup.
Steelers vs. Patriots Best Prop Bets
Aaron Rodgers Under 228.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Aaron Rodgers opened some eyes in Week 1 against the Jets by completing 22 of his 30 pass attempts for 244 yards and four touchdowns. Vengeance was on his mind after his failed New York tenure, and this was his most impressive performance in several seasons. The four-time MVP then came back down to earth a bit last week against the Seahawks. Rodgers completed 18 of his 33 pass attempts for 203 yards, one touchdown, and a pair of interceptions. He got beaten up throughout the matchup, taking eight hits throughout, and felt the impact of those.
There is no question about the caliber of quarterback Aaron Rodgers was in the prime of his career. But the conversation is a bit more difficult in evaluating what exactly he is currently. Father Time is undefeated, and Rodgers will turn 42 during this season. The Patriots’ defense has not graded particularly well to start this year, as they rank 19th in points allowed and 26th in yards given up. While their secondary is a concern, especially with Christian Gonzalez out, the Patriots’ pass rush has been impressive. They invested in it heavily this offseason and lead the NFL with nine sacks through the opening two weeks.
The hits took a toll on Rodgers as last week progressed, and don’t expect this to get any easier as the season continues. Look for Pittsburgh to rely more on its running game in what should be a grind-it-out, hard-nosed style of football game. The opening week output felt like a bit of an outlier with unique circumstances due to the matchup. Last week feels closer to the type of yardage that will become the norm for Rodgers at this stage of his career. Look for him to be held to under 228.5 passing yards for the second straight week and for the Patriots’ pass rush to cause problems throughout.
D.K. Metcalf Longest Reception Over 23.5 Yards (-115)
Through his first two games in a Steelers jersey, D.K. Metcalf has pulled in seven receptions for 103 yards and a touchdown. His production has been tied to Rodgers’ outlook as the two-time Pro Bowler had 83 receiving yards in the opening game, but was limited to just 20 receiving yards last week.
While the concerns with the pass rush are legitimate, Rodgers is not afraid to take chances with the football. Metcalf is arguably the most physically imposing wide receiver in football, and Pittsburgh should like his chances on a 50-50 ball up against just about anyone. This is especially the case against a Patriots defense that has allowed 13 passing plays of 20+ yards already this season. This is three more than the next-worst team in the league. New England is averaging a concerning 12.6 yards allowed per completion overall, which is the third-most in the NFL.
Metcalf had a longest reception of 31 yards in Week 1, and in nine of the 15 games he played last season. The volume of opportunities may not be particularly high, but expect the Steelers to give Metcalf a few chances at a big play and for the star wide receiver to deliver. 23.5 is too low a bar for his style of play, and count on Metcalf to exceed this in the Week 3 matchup.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
There was plenty of hype surrounding TreVeyon Henderson entering the season after the Patriots selected the running back with the 38th overall pick in this year’s draft. But through the opening two weeks, the rookie has just eight rushing attempts for 37 yards. When looking at rushing props, opportunity sometimes matters even more than talent, and Rhamondre Stevenson still looks to have the pathway to being the lead back.
Stevenson was limited to seven carries for just 15 yards in the opening week against the Raiders. But he bounced back with 11 carries for 54 yards in the previous game and should be in line for this type of opportunity once again. Pittsburgh’s defense is showing its age a bit this season and currently ranks 28th in rushing yards allowed and 30th in rushing touchdowns conceded. Kenneth Walker III rushed for 105 yards last week, and Breece Hall rushed for 107 yards against the Steelers in the season opener.
The 41.5 rushing yard prop line is simply too low for the caliber of defense the Patriots have shown and the volume of opportunities that Stevenson will see. Expect Henderson to eat into his touches more as the season progresses, but for the time being, New England appears content with just using the Ohio State product in the passing game. Stevenson has averaged 50.5 rushing yards per game or greater in every season of his career and eclipsed this total last week. Expect the same against a vulnerable defense and for Stevenson to record over 41.5 rushing yards for the second straight week.
