We all love a shiny new toy. A fresh Lego set, a new video game, or an exciting rookie running back in fantasy football. New England Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson was the shiny rookie for a lot of redraft league drafters, myself included, in the offseason. A plodding Rhamondre Stevenson against the exciting rookie? Surely talent will win out. But through two weeks, that has not been the case.
Let’s break down why Stevenson has become the Patriots running back to own in fantasy football.
Year-to-Date Analysis
Week 1’s distribution between the two backs played out as many expected. Stevenson, ever the plodder, toted the ball seven times for 15 yards. He also secured two of three targets for 12 yards. Henderson, on the other hand, turned his five carries into 27 yards while securing all six targets for 24 yards. Obviously, subpar fantasy days for both, but it was a sign that Stevenson was losing his grip on the job. However, he did out-snap the rookie 46 to 25.
Things changed in a big way during Week 2. Once again, Stevenson comfortably out-snapped Henderson 39-19. The touches represented a major shift, with Stevenson earning 11 carries for 54 yards compared to three carries and 10 yards for the rookie. He also got more work in the passing game, reeling in all five targets for 88 yards while Henderson secured two for 30. Veteran Antonio Gibson out-touched Henderson to boot.
The reasons are clear. Henderson, widely lauded as one of the best pass-protection RB prospects in recent memory, has struggled with it to begin his NFL career. The footage against the Dolphins shows why he doesn’t have the trust of head coach Mike Vrabel.
It leaves Henderson owners in a difficult position.
The Verdict
Stevenson has clearly become the back to own in the short term. Vrabel is going to value a veteran who can protect Drake Maye over the talented rookie. And it’s clear Stevenson still has some juice, especially against the Steelers in this upcoming Week 3 game.
It’s reasonable to expect that Henderson will improve in pass protection and gain more trust with the coaching staff. In the likely event that the Patriots fade out of the playoff picture, he’ll get more looks and touches, and increase in value. Don’t drop or trade him just yet.
