The New York Mets still hold a two-game lead for the third and final NL Wild Card spot coming into their three-game set this weekend against the Nationals. The Nats will look to play spoiler and help the Reds and Diamondbacks by continuing the Mets’ recent slide. The series begins at 7:10 p.m. ET this Friday night with a matchup of two exciting young arms.
The Mets took two of three games from the Padres this week after snapping an eight-game losing streak last Sunday against the Rangers. They are 79-74 coming into this series, which still has them a whopping 17 games ahead of the Nationals, who are just 62-91 after dropping four straight to the Braves to start the week. Despite their disappointing overall record, they do have some exciting young players in the mix that make them a very entertaining team to watch.
The Mets are heavy home favorites at -218 on the moneyline, with the run total for the game at 8.5. Let’s preview this Friday night matchup with the help of some odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationals at Mets prediction, preview
As hinted at in the opener, the starting pitching matchup in this matchup is an extremely juicy one if you’re a fan of live young arms. Both youngsters taking the mound have great stuff but also come with high risk since rookies can be so volatile when they first arrive in the majors.
The Mets will give the ball to newly-turned-25-year-old Brandon Sproat, while the Nationals counter with 26-year-old lefty Andrew Alvarez. MLB Pipeline ranked Sproat as the fifth-overall prospect in the Mets system, and he has the higher prospect pedigree of the two rookies. However, Alvarez has also been effective, making this a compelling matchup to watch.
Sproat is 0-1 in his first two MLB starts, but he showed good signs in both outings. He gave up three runs in six innings in Cincinnati for his debut, working aroudn four walks and three hits with seven strikeouts. He was much more in control in his most recent outing, not issuing a single walk in six shutout innnings against the Rangers in a no-decision.
In the minors, Sproat went 8-6 this season with a 4.24 ERA, but he went 5-1 with a 2.44 ERA in his last 10 starts in Triple-A, picking up an impressive 70 strikeouts in 59 innings over that span.
Alvarez has made three starts for the Nats, allowing a total of two runs on seven hits in 15 2/3 innings, while picking up 11 strikeouts. In Triple-A this season, he went 3-7 with a 4.10 ERA over his 25 starts. However, like Sproat, he was much sharper later in the season, going 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 2.31 FIP in his last six starts before his promotion.
Each of these offenses has been streaky throughout the season. At times, the Mets look like a juggernaut on offense, but they have also been prone to team-wide slumps. The Nationals’ lineup is stocked with promising young bats but also has a tendency to streak and slump as a unit. Over the last two weeks, the Mets have averaged just 3.7 runs per game, while the Nationals have only averaged 3.0 runs over their seven games in the last week.
While both teams are struggling a little on offense, some individual hitters stand out for player props. Juan Soto has had no problem hitting lefties this year, so he makes sense even in a lefty-lefty matchup. In his last 19 games, Soto is hitting a blistering .356 with a .504 wOBA, nine homers, 10 stolen bases, 21 RBI and 71 total bases. He also has 65 HRR (Hits + Runs + RBI) for an average of 3.4 HRR per game, making his 3+ HRR at +134 and his 2+ Total Bases at +109 both strong options to consider.
On the other side, Daylen Lile and Dylan Crews are both under-the-radar options finishing their rookie seasons strongly. Lile is hitting .382 with two doubles, six triples, and three homers in his last 18 games, while Crews had two hits in each of his last two games and has hit safely in six of his last seven games with an at-bat, going 8-for-25 (.320) with a double, a home run, and two stolen bases. Crews is +138 for 2+ HRR and Lile is +143 for 2+ Total Bases.
Nationals vs. Mets pick, best bet
Best Bet: Brandon Sproat over 4.5 strikeouts recorded (-135)
Sproat’s outstanding minor league strikeout totals should translate against the Nationals’ young hitters, who have a 27.1% K% in the last month, averaging 9.9 strikeouts per game. If you want to be more aggressive, you can play this as a ladder as well with 6+ at +164, and 7+ at +345.
Strong Lean: Under 8.5 runs (-116)
While both rookie starting pitchers are risky, I think their solid second-half numbers indicate runs will be hard to come by in this contest. Even if one struggles, the other should be good enough to help this total stay under.
