Rutgers is hosting Iowa on the Friday night of Week 4. The game will take place at 8:00 P.M. ET in Piscataway, New Jersey. This is the first Big Ten game of the season for both teams as they look to start conference play strong.
The Hawkeyes are 2.5-point road favorites in this game on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 45.5 points. This is a preview, prediction and pick for this Rutgers vs. Iowa Big Ten matchup.
Rutgers vs. Iowa prediction, preview
Iowa Preview
The Hawkeyes came into this season hoping that South Dakota State transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski would solve their recurring issue at that position. Gronowski was a multi-time MVP and national champion at the FCS level, but this looks like the same old Iowa offense through three weeks. The Hawkeyes rank 94th in the nation in offensive EPA/pass this season. That is despite two of their three games coming against horrific competition, UMass and Albany. In their lone game against Power Four competition, Iowa scored just 13 points and Gronowski tallied only 83 passing yards. That was against an Iowa State defense that has not been very impressive outside of that game. The signs are very worrying around the Hawkeyes’ offense, and while they are always solid on defense, that unit is not elite enough to carry them like it has in past seasons.
Rutgers Preview
Rutgers has been the opposite of Iowa this season. The offense has been fantastic, mainly the passing game led by Athan Kaliakmanis. Rutgers ranks fifth in the country in offensive EPA/pass and second in the nation in available yards percentage. That means they are going the length of the field on almost every possession. This will be the best offense that Iowa has faced this season, and it should offer a real test. On defense, Rutgers has had some struggles. They rank 87th in defensive EPA/play this season. Greg Schiano has made a bowl game in back-to-back seasons as he works to rebuild Rutgers football. This would be a massive win to move the team to 4-0 as that rebuild continues to grow.
Rutgers vs. Iowa pick, best bet
Iowa and Rutgers will be in a battle of who can dictate the flow of the game. The Hawkeyes want to turn this contest into a rock fight. They will run the ball early and often, trying to drain the clock and limit possessions. They will lean on their defense to get stops and win the field position battle. Meanwhile, Rutgers will want to air it out with their quarterback, whom they fully trust with the ball in his hands. They want Kaliakmanis to get this Iowa defense on their heels and force the Iowa offense to try to play from behind.
This is a great offensive team with a bad defense against an awful offensive team with a good defense. However, when looking at the matchups, the Rutgers offense is better than the Iowa defense, and the Iowa offense is worse than the Rutgers defense. Rutgers should not be a home underdog against this Iowa team, so I am backing them to cover the short spread on Friday night.
