There are 11 MLB games on the main DraftKings DFS slate for Saturday, with the first starting at 7:05 p.m. EST. Here are three value picks for the slate. This article is written before the actual lineups come out, so keep track of updates throughout the day.
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SP Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians, $6,900
Ober hasn’t been good in 135.1 innings this season. His ERA is 5.12, supported by a 5.08 FIP, and his fastball averages only 90.5 mph. The walk rate is just 4.8%, but he has allowed 30 home runs, two more than the number of walks issued. The barrel rate is 11.1%, and the hard-hit rate is 40.2%.
The swinging strike rate is 11.5%, and the chase rate is 33.1%. Those are excellent numbers.
It’s mostly been a home run issue, but the Guardians rank 25th in ISO against right-handed pitching. In addition, Ober has put up over 20 FPTS in each of his last two outings.
SP Patrick Corbin, Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins, $7,100
Corbin looked finished after four straight seasons with a 5-plus ERA. Last season, however, his FIP was 4.41, as he experienced some bad luck with a .337 BABIP and a 65.7% strand rate. This season, the numbers are similar, but the BABIP is down to .300 and the strand rate has improved to 75.3%. His ERA is 4.23 with a 4.32 FIP. The swinging strike rate remains solid at 11.4%, with a 30.1% chase rate and a 20% strikeout rate.
This recommendation is mostly about the matchup. The Marlins rank 25th in ISO and 23rd in wOBA against left-handed pitching. Corbin has posted 14.95 and 18.35 FPTS in his last two games. Four games ago, he finished with 35.6 FPTS, showing he still has ceiling potential. That performance came against a Rangers team that ranks 15th in strikeouts versus lefties. Miami ranks 26th.
SP Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres at Chicago White Sox, $7,400
Darvish has pitched 62.1 innings this season at age 38. The production has been volatile, with six starts under 10 FPTS, including one in the negatives. He also has three starts over 20 FPTS, with a high of 32.55.
His ERA is 5.63, and his FIP is 4.83. The strikeout rate is a solid 23.3%, and the swinging strike rate is 10.2%. His walk rate is just 6.6%. He has done a good job limiting hard contact, allowing an average exit velocity of 86.6 mph, a 7.5% barrel rate, and a 32.8% hard-hit rate.
The matchup favors Darvish. The White Sox are ninth in strikeouts against right-handed pitching and rank 29th in both ISO and wOBA.
