The Cleveland Guardians seemed to be on the verge of falling out of the playoff race, but their recent hot streak has helped them vault back into contention. After sweeping the Tigers to bring the division and the Wild Card into reach, they’ll head to Minnesota for an important series against the Twins. The series will get underway at 8:10 p.m. ET this Friday night, weather permitting, and should be one of the most exciting and important series of the weekend.
The Guardians have won seven straight and 12 of their last 13 games to close the gap to just 3.5 games behind the Tigers for the AL Central lead. They still have another series at home against Detroit next week before finishing the year with three games at home against the Rangers. This series in Minnesota is their last road series of the regular season, and they could climb into the Wild Card lead with a good weekend since they are just 1.5 games behind Boston for the third and final Wild Card spot. The Twins are well out of the race but will look to play spoiler this weekend. They are 66-86 on the season and have lost four of their last five. They have also lost six of nine to these Guardians as well.
The Guardians are extremely narrow road favorites at -114 on the Moneyline, with the run total for the game set at eight. Let’s preview this Friday night matchup with the help of some odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians at Twins prediction, preview
The Guardians haven’t been crushing their opponents during their recent surge but have consistently found ways to win close games. They’ve relied on outstanding pitching and timely hitting to carry them back into postseason contention.
On Friday, they’ll give the ball to rookie Parker Messnick. The 24-year-old lefty is 3-0 in his five starts with a 1.84 ERA and 2.50 FIP. He only went 5-6 with a 3.47 ERA and 3.67 FIP in his 20 starts at Triple-A, but he has posted back-to-back strong outings with just one run allowed in six innings to beat the Rays and the White Sox.
Like many of the Guardians, his stuff isn’t overwhelming and he doesn’t have awesome strikeout totals, but he limits damage and has proven very adept at navigating trouble and getting high-leverage outs.
He’ll be opposed by the much more established Pablo Lopez on Friday night, and the apparent starting pitching disparity is why the game is virtually a coin flip according to the odds. Lopez has been limited ot just 13 games this season due to injury, but he has been effective when available, especially at home where he is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in five starts.
The veteran has made two starts after coming off the 60-day IL with a shoulder problem. He gave up two runs in six innings in a loss to the Royals and then held the Diamondbacks to no earned runs in five innings to earn a no-decision in his most recent outing.
Lopez made one start this year against the Guardians and took the loss, giving up two runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings all the way back at the end of April, a game the Guardians won, 4-2.
Several of the Guardians’ hitters have a good history against Lopez, including Steven Kwan (7-for-17), Angel Martinez (4-for-6, two 2B), and Jose Ramirez (9-for-22, 2B, 3B). Ramirez has been the heart of the Guardians’ offense all season, hitting .282 with 39 stolen bases, 29 home runs, and a .358 wOBA. Over his last 14 games, he has nine extra-base hits and an impressive 38 HRR (Hits + Runs + RBI).
While the Twins traded many of their starting batters at the Trade Deadline, they still have a few hitters who have performed well since then. Brooks Lee has multiple hits in each of his last two games, going 5-for-8 with a home run, and he now has 15 homers on the year with a .242 batting average.
Byron Buxton has been able to stay healthy for the most part this year and is hitting .270 in his 117 games with new career-highs of 31 homers, 91 runs scored and 76 RBI to go with 24 stolen bases, his highest mark since 2017.
Buxton is hitting .315 against lefties on the season and has an impressive 185 wRC+ in the split. He’s hitting .282 in his last 18 games with 50 HRR and 65 total bases. Getting Buxton’s individual player props of 2+ Total Bases at -105 and 3+ HRR at +137 are solid ways to back the Buck Truck to deliver once again this Friday.
Guardians vs. Twins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Guardians Moneyline (-114)
Getting the Guardians at barely minus odds is unusual given how hot they have been and how wrong things have gone in Minnesota. The starting pitching matchup is the only thing going for the Twins, and I think Messick brings more potential than many people realize.
Strong Lean: Jose Ramirez 3+ Hits + Runs + RBI (+127)
Ramirez has 38 HRR in his last 14 games for an average of 2.7 HRR per game. He’s gone over this line in two of the last three games and is averaging 2.25 HRR per game on the season. With his past success against Lopez, Ramirez has a good shot to go over this HRR line on Friday night.
