Just when I keep wanted to write-off the Reds as dead in the NL Wild Card race, they do something special and get themselves right back in the thick of it.
Cincinnati is back above .500 and only two games behind the Mets after a stunning complete game performance from Hunter Greene on Thursday evening. The former top prospect allowed just a single hit and struck out nine against a hungover Cubs squad that had celebrated a playoff clinch the day prior.
Can the Reds keep making a push? Let’s preview this divisional matchup with the help of some of those odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Reds vs. Cubs prediction, preview
Nick Lodolo is coming off a horrendous start against the Athletics, an outing in which the left-hander served-up three home runs and eight hits in just 5.1 innings of work. Still, as of late, that performance has been the exception to the rule. Dating back to June 18, Lodolo is in possession of a 2.74 ERA and a 3.73 FIP over 12 appearances. He’s had some long ball issues in that span — particularly at Great American Ball Park — yet Lodolo is also rocking a 6.70 K/BB ratio. That’s the fifth-highest mark in MLB among pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings in that same stretch of time. Ironically, Shota Imanaga, who is starting opposite of Lodolo this evening, ranks first (8.44).
The Cubs have had success against southpaws in 2025, coming into Friday’s action sitting fifth in ISO (.179) and sixth in wRC+ (107) within the split, yet Lodolo has stymied the team when given the opportunity. Lodolo left his last start versus Chicago on August 4 due to injury, but not before retiring the first five hitters he faced. Prior to that, Lodolo tossed six scoreless innings at Wrigley Field all the way back on May 31. That said, there are some batters in on the Cubs’ roster that have really enjoyed seeing Lodolo in the past. Ian Happ has the most at-bats versus Lodolo and he’s 7-for-20 (.350) with five extra-base hits and a 1.109 OPS. Seiya Suzuki has also thrived in this matchup — as he often does against any LHP. Suzuki is just 5-for-14 (.357), yet that’s because Lodolo has walked him eight times. Suzuki owns a .591 OBP when Lodolo’s on the mound. Wild stuff.
The aforementioned Imanaga will toe the rubber for Chicago this evening, trying to get back on track before a likely start in the Wild Card round. While Imanaga hasn’t issued many free passes this season, his strikeout rate (21.1%) is down significantly from last year, and that lack of whiffs has translated into some hard contact. Home runs were always the red flag in Imanaga’s profile as he attempted to transition from the NPB, and we’ve certainly seen that problem arise in the lefty’s past 10 outings. It’s a span where Imanaga has surrendered 15 opponent long balls in only 59.0 innings — that’s a whopping 2.29 per nine. Woof. The Reds don’t hit a lot of home runs, but that’s a scary way to live at the hitter-friendly GABP.
Reds vs. Cubs pick, best bet
Best Bet: Reds ML (-104)
Cincinnati is the more motivated team and Lodolo’s been solid. I’ll back the Reds as slight home dogs.
Strong Lean: Ian Happ 2+ Total Bases (+119)
Happ has amazing career numbers off Lodolo. More importantly, the switch-hitter is sporting a 147 wRC+ since the All-Star break.
