Following a disappointing series defeat to the Athletics, it’s sweating time for the Red Sox. Boston is just two games ahead of Cleveland for the AL’s final wildcard spot. It won’t get any easier tonight when the team travels to Tampa Bay. Despite their sub-.500 record, the Rays would love nothing more than to play spoiler this weekend. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s meeting between the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays.
Boston is favored (-133) over Tampa Bay, with the over/under set at seven runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Red Sox vs. Rays prediction, preview
As mediocre as the Red Sox have looked, Friday’s game offers fans some hope. That’s due to ace Garrett Crochet, one of the AL’s leading Cy Young candidates. Through 191.1 innings of work, the southpaw has notched a 2.63 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and a league-leading 240 strikeouts. The two-time All-Star has surrendered three or more runs in just six of his 30 appearances. When these two teams met on July 12th, Crochet tossed a nine-inning, three-hit shutout vs. Tampa Bay.
Despite a hot start to the season, this Rays squad has struggled for months. That’s especially true at the plate. Since August 1st, Tampa Bay has scored 174 total runs, sixth-lowest in baseball. In addition, the team owns the league’s ninth-lowest OPS vs. left-handed pitching (.664). That’s bad news against most starters, let alone an ace such as Crochet. The absence of All-Star Jonathan Aranda (wrist) certainly doesn’t help. In addition, slugger Junior Caminero (back) missed last night’s game vs. the Blue Jays.
Tampa Bay’s offense is looking shaky, but all hope is not lost. Starter Drew Rasmussen is one of the American League’s most dangerous starters. Over 144.2 innings pitched, the right-hander has posted a 2.74 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 122 strikeouts. The biggest issue for the 30-year-old is length. Rasmussen has tossed six innings in just eight of his 29 outings (28%). Fortunately for the Rays, their bullpen ranks sixth in baseball with a 3.64 ERA. Over their previous seven games, the Red Sox have only averaged 3.29 runs per game.
Red Sox vs. Rays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Red Sox vs. Rays under 3.5 total runs – 1st 5 innings (-105)
Given the amount of talent on the mound, it’s impossible to expect much offense on Friday. However, there also isn’t much value in backing the favored Red Sox. Instead, the savvy play might be to support both starters. Rasmussen owns a career 3.00 ERA over 27.0 innings vs. Boston. Assuming Crochet continues to dominate, these two hurlers should keep things low scoring tonight.
