This is the second contest of a three-game series in Detroit between the Tigers and visiting Atlanta Braves.
Joey Wentz is scheduled to pitch for Atlanta, while Keider Montero is scheduled to pitch for Detroit.
Braves at Tigers prediction, preview
Joey Wentz has made 37 appearances this season, pitching 89 innings. Only 11 of those have been starts. His ERA is 5.56, but the FIP is 4.11, as the BABIP is .325 and the strand rate is 62.3%. The strikeout rate is 20.7%, but the walk rate is high at 9.8%. He’s allowed 10 home runs. The average exit velocity is 90.7 mph, the barrel rate is 9.8%, and the hard-hit rate is 43.3%. His swinging strike rate is 10.4%, and the chase rate is 31.3%, marking the first time in his career it’s been over 30%.
Seven of the 10 home runs have come off the bats of righties. The K-BB% is 6.1% lower against lefties, with a walk rate of 12.3%. Wentz has been better on the road, with a 3.56 FIP compared to 4.78 at home, and a 5.9% higher K-BB%.
In 11 starts, Wentz has allowed more than three earned runs four times and has gone at least six innings three times. He faced the Tigers back in June out of the bullpen, going 1.2 innings, walking four and striking out one while allowing three earned runs on 12 hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Tigers rank 23rd in strikeout rate, fourth in ISO, and first in MLB in wOBA.
Keider Montero has appeared in 18 games and pitched 83.1 innings, with 10 starts. His ERA is 4.32, while the FIP is 4.86. The strikeout rate is only 17.6%, and the walk rate is 7.6%. He’s allowed 14 home runs. The chase rate is 29.1%, but the swinging strike rate is just 8.6%.
Nine of the 14 home runs have come off the bats of lefties. Ten of the 14 have been allowed at home. The K-BB% is only 1.2% against lefties, and the FIP against them is a whopping 6.71. His numbers are slightly better on the road, but there is a big discrepancy in the FIPs due to the home runs.
Montero has allowed more than three earned runs five times and has gone at least six innings twice. This will be his first time facing Atlanta this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Braves have the 11th-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the 21st-best ISO, and rank 17th in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Atlanta rank 24th in FIP, while Detroit ranks 26th.
Braves at Tigers pick, best bet
There are reasons why this game has a total of nine runs. Wentz gets hit hard and the Tigers feast on left-handed pitching. Montero has struggled against lefties and the Braves boast some powerful ones. In addition, both bullpens have not been good.
