This is the opener of a three-game series in Detroit between the Tigers and visiting Atlanta Braves.
Bryce Elder is scheduled to pitch for Atlanta, while Charlie Morton is scheduled to pitch for Detroit.
Braves at Tigers prediction, preview
Bryce Elder has a 5.56 ERA through 142.1 innings. The BABIP is high at .313 while the strand is low at 66.4%, so the FIP is at 4.61. Elder only averages 92.7 mph on the fastball with a 9.4% swinging strike rate, 29% chase rate and 18.8% strikeout rate. The walk rate is elevated at 8.1%. Elder has allowed 21 home runs. The barrel rate is 7.3% but the hard hit rate is 43.7%.
13 of the 21 home runs have come off the bat of righties. The K-BB% is 2.4% higher against righties, but the 1.63 HR/9 has the FIP at 4.82 compared to 4.39 against lefties. Elder has been much better on the road, as the K-BB% is 11.3% higher and the FIP is 1.18 lower.
In 26 starts, Elder has allowed more than three earned runs 10 times. He has three games allowing at least eight earned runs and is coming off getting blasted for six earned runs in 4.1 innings. Elder has gone at least six innings 14 times. This will be his first time facing Detroit this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Tigers rank third in strikeout rate, 12th in ISO, and 19th in MLB in wOBA.
Charlie Morton is posting a 5.56 ERA through 139.1 innings. Like Elder, the FIP is lower at 4.87 as the BABIP is high at .319. Unlike Elder, Morton is still missing bats at 41 years old. The swinging strike rate is 11.6% and the strikeout rate is 23%. Unfortunately, the walk rate is up at 10.8% and he’s allowed 22 home runs. The average exit velocity is 91.3 mph and the hard hit rate is 43.9%.
13 of the 22 home runs have been served up at home. The numbers are similar against righties and lefties with the main differences being higher strikeout and walk rates against lefties. He’s been site neutral.
In 25 starts, Morton has allowed more than three earned runs 10 times, although five of those came in his first five starts of the season as a member of the Baltimore Orioles. He’s gone at least six innings nine times. Morton faced Atlanta back in July on the road as an Oriole, going 5.1 innings, walking one and striking out seven while allowing two earned runs on six hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Braves have the 11th-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the 21st-best ISO, and rank 17th in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Atlanta rank 24th in FIP, while Detroit ranks 26th.
Braves at Tigers pick, best bet
I think plenty of runs get scored in this one, as both starters are susceptible and both bullpens have been poor.
