The end of the MLB regular season is nigh, meaning the Wild Card race gets all the more interesting over the coming week. While the Philadelphia Phillies (91-62) clinched their postseason spot, the Arizona Diamondbacks (77-76) remain in the hunt at two games out of the playoff picture. A three-game series between these squads kicks off tonight and could potentially decide whether the D-backs make it into the final field to keep their season alive.
Here’s a Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Arizona seemed all but eliminated from postseason contention a few weeks ago after falling below the .500 mark. However, a push back above it brings the Diamondbacks within striking distance, though momentum isn’t exactly on their side with a 5-5 record across their last 10 games. Still, he fact Arizona even remains competitive after trading key contributors at the Trade Deadline and losing a handful of pitchers to injury does seem quite impressive. This team scores 5.2 runs per contest in September with a .254 average and .740 OPS this month, both the 11th-best marks in the sport. They’re keeping strikeouts down with a 20.0% K%, but the power bats have cooled off significantly with just 15 homers and a .154 ISO. As respectable as the offense is, the pitching staff is doing the same with a 4.03 ERA and excellent 1.11 WHIP this month despite having one of the league’s lowest K% marks at just 19.6%.
On the other side, the Phillies keep dominating opponents with the second-best record in baseball. They’re 8-2 across their last 10 contests and are still a top-tier contender despite losing ace Zack Wheeler for the remainder of the season to a blood clot. This month, Philadelphia’s offense averages 5.8 runs per game with an MLB-best .283 average and .860 OPS, plus a .332 BABIP. A .220 ISO ranks second with 27 homers in 16 games, and the Phillies also come in just outside the top-10 with a 0.40 BB/K. Now, the pitching staff hasn’t thrown their best stuff with a collective 4.25 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, but they’re underperforming a 3.97 xERA, so luck hasn’t exactly been on Philadelphia’s side this month.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Diamondbacks as -126 Moneyline favorites tonight while the Phillies come in as +104 underdogs. The run total is set at nine with the over favored at -121 odds.
On the mound this evening, Ryne Nelson (3.34 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 122 SO in 143.0 IP) suits up for Arizona. He takes on Philadelphia’s Taijuan Walker (4.17 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 79 SO). The former averages 95.2 mph on his fastball with solid control at a 6.8% BB%, and he’s delivered 95th-percentile run value despite sitting in the fifth percentile of average exit velocity. Meanwhile, Walker bring more of a soft-tossing approach while sitting 66th percentile in ground ball percentage, but he doesn’t truly excel anywhere and posts a sixth-percentile K%.
Despite a statistical mismatch in the pitching matchups, I see little reason to worry about the Phillies on the Moneyline on Friday night. This team may wear red, but the bats are crimson as well as this hot streak continues. Nelson’s numbers look solid but that underlying exit velocity as well as a 14th-percentile grade in hard-hit percentage scare me a little bit, especially against a team with as many hitters with pop as Philadelphia. You’re telling me Kyle Schwarber won’t stare Nelson down and bash his 54th home run of the year? Take the chance with Philly at slight plus value tonight and don’t look back, even on the road.
Best bet: PHI Phillies ML (+104)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
