These are my picks to win every Week 3 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier. You can bet on any of these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 3 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Bills over Dolphins
The Bills look like the best team in the NFL through two weeks. They faced a massive test in the season opener against the Ravens, but came back to pick up a massive win. They then steam rolled a Jets team that had looked competitive in Week 1. The Bills rank first in the NFL in offensive EPA/play through two weeks and should dominate the Dolphins. Miami looks like a defeated team, giving up 33 points each to Drake Maye and Daniel Jones in their first two games. The Bills could score 50 points in this game.
Packers over Browns
The Packers look like the class of the NFC, alongside the Eagles, through two games. They beat two division winners from last season to start their season, handling both the Lions and the Commanders with ease. The Micah Parsons addition seems to have taken their already strong defense to the next level. Jordan Love has also started the season strong and this looks to be one of the NFL’s most balanced offenses with Josh Jacobs running the football. The Browns have no explosiveness on offense and shouldn’t be able to score enough to keep up with Green Bay.
Chiefs over Giants
The Chiefs are 0-2 for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era. They have had a tough first two games, travelling to Brazil to face the Chargers and taking on the defending champions last week. They could have beaten the Eagles had Travis Kelce not dropped a touchdown that turned into an Eagles’ interception. Kansas City showed that they are still a good team with that performance against the Eagles. While they are not looking like the best team in the NFL, they should beat a Giants team that couldn’t score in Week 1 and then couldn’t get a stop in Week 2.
Ravens over Lions
The Ravens are right up there with the Bills and Packers as the most impressive teams through two weeks. Despite their opening loss to the Bills, the Ravens showed how terrifying their offense can be. They backed that up with a blowout win over the Browns in Week 2. Their offense ranks just behind Buffalo’s in second place in the NFL in EPA/play. The Lions have not looked the same through two weeks. They struggled to move the ball against the Packers and looked the much inferior team in that game. They blew out the Bears in Week 2, but that game was more of an indictment of how bad the Bears are. If this game were in Detroit, it would be a tougher pick, but Jared Goff on the road outdoors is not the same quarterback. The Ravens should win this one.
Falcons over Panthers
The Falcons’ defense has been impressive through two games. They made multiple big moves to improve on that side of the ball, and it seems to be paying off. Despite taking the loss in Week 1, they made life tough on Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. The following week, they completely shut down the Vikings. Drake London and Bijan Robinson are elite skill position players, and Michael Penix Jr. has shown real promise through two weeks. The Panthers have looked terrible in seven of their eight quarters this season. They were dominated by the Jaguars in Week 1, then were getting crushed by the Cardinals in Week 2 before a fourth-quarter comeback that came up just short. The Falcons should pick up the win in this divisional game.
Medium Confidence
Seahawks over Saints
After they struggled to get any offense going in Week 1, Seattle looked much better in Week 2. Kenneth Walker III ran for over 100 yards, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba had over 100 receiving yards. If Sam Darnold can be as sharp as he was last season in Minnesota, this offense could be dangerous this season. The Saints put up a good fight in Week 2, but their roster is just not up to par with the competitive teams in the NFL. The Seahawks should win this one with the superior offensive firepower.
Buccaneers over Jets
The Buccaneers are 2-0 to start the season and have a great chance to make it 3-0 at home against the Jets. The Jets played well in Week 1 against Pittsburgh, but after how badly the Steelers’ defense played in Week 2, that might not be as much of an accomplishment as it seemed at the time. The Jets’ defense has been awful through two weeks, ranking 31st in defensive EPA/play. The Buccaneers should be able to score on the Jets and get the win.
Colts over Titans
The Colts have been one of the surprise teams in the NFL through two weeks. Daniel Jones has played well, and Jonathan Taylor has been exceptional, leading the NFL in rushing through two weeks. They dominated the Dolphins to open the season, then pulled off a dramatic late win over the Broncos last week. They get to face a rookie quarterback, Cam Ward, in this Week 3 matchup. The Colts’ defense should limit Ward, and the Titans’ defense has struggled through two weeks.
Eagles over Rams
This is a rematch of the exciting playoff game between these two teams last year. The Rams have a dangerous offense and are 2-0 to start the season. However, the Eagles have proven over the past couple of seasons that they just find a way to win games. The Texans’ tough defense was able to slow down the Rams in Week 1 and the Eagles should do the same. The game-breaking plays from Saquon Barkley, along with the cheat code in short-yardage situations that is the tush push, should get the Eagles the win.
Commanders over Raiders
The Commanders suffered a loss in Week 2 to the Packers, but they have a big rest advantage in this game. After playing on Thursday Night Football last week, they get ten days of rest, compared to just six days of rest for the Raiders, who played on Monday Night Football. The Raiders looked completely lost on offense against the Chargers. Washington should be able to outscore them at home in this spot.
Coin-Flip Games
Vikings over Bengals
The battle of the backup quarterbacks will be fascinating. Carson Wentz is expected to start for Minnesota, while Jake Browning should start for Cincinnati. There are a lot of unknowns with two backup quarterbacks, which makes me turn towards the coaching staff to see who will get the win. Brian Flores is one of the league’s best defensive coordinators and should throw things at Jake Browning to make his life hard. Kevin O’Connell is also a much better coach than Zac Taylor, which should be the difference in this game.
Chargers over Broncos
The Chargers have been really impressive through two games, beating the Chiefs and dominating the Raiders. Meanwhile, the Broncos lost to the Colts and barely survived against the Titans. This will be a tough divisional game on short rest for the Chargers, but they look like the better team at the moment. Justin Herbert looks the best he ever has at quarterback, while the Chargers’ defense has been dominant. The better quarterback, Herbert, should get the win here.
Cowboys over Bears
The Cowboys have had a wild start to their season. They hung tough against the Eagles in Week 1, then won a crazy overtime thriller against the Giants in Week 2. They will hope to get a straightforward win in this game. The Bears have looked poor through two weeks, blowing a lead to the Vikings and getting demolished by the Lions. Caleb Williams does not look to have made the jump that many hoped he would under Ben Johnson quite yet. They also have major defensive issues, which Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb should be able to exploit.
49ers over Cardinals
The 49ers are without Brock Purdy, but that didn’t stop them from getting a win in New Orleans on Sunday. Mac Jones played well in this Shanahan system that is so friendly for quarterbacks. They will be able to feed the ball to Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings to get points on the board. The Cardinals are 2-0, but have faced weak competition between the Panthers and the Saints. This will be a different level of competition, and they could struggle against their division rivals.
Patriots over Steelers
The Steelers’ defense has floundered through two games, giving up 32 points to the Jets and 31 points to the Seahawks. It’s made worse by the fact that both of those teams struggled offensively in their other game this season that wasn’t against the Steelers. They were able to score against the Jets in Week 1, but their offense didn’t look great in Week 2. They rank 21st in offensive EPA/play through two weeks and 27th in defensive EPA/play. The Patriots should feel good after their Week 2 win over the Dolphins and find a way to win this one.
Texans over Jaguars
The Texans are in a bad spot through two weeks. They sit at 0-2 after close losses to the Rams and the Buccaneers. Those are two division winners from last season, so it’s hard to be too harsh on Houston. They have been good defensively, giving up just 17 PPG against two good offenses. However, their offense has struggled to get going with so many missing pieces due to injuries. This is a real coin-flip game between these two teams, but the Texans are desperate for a win, and the better defense should allow them to squeak one out in Jacksonville.
